NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	7.7 [288]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): +25.0%
New York Knicks	89		Comeback	3.4 [450]		LVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): -25.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25	0.18	0.06	-0.01	17	76%	0.28	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Tom Hammonds	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.02	0.00	11	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	0.00	16	56%	0.08	3	-0.22	9	100%	0.09
Mark Jackson	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.19	-0.06	-0.00	11	17%	-0.18	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Bryant Stith	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.06	-0.18	0.01	14	41%	-0.16	1	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	-0.00	10	55%	0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Childs	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.15,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	15	61%	0.21	2	-0.11	3	100%	0.01
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	7	56%	0.04	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Allan Houston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	45%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Buck Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.14	4	75%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.25,-0.23	-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	20	41%	-0.16	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	24.2	15.6	22.3	2.5	36.4	126.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +48.4%

DEN -26.8%

NYK +24.0%

NYK +7.6%

DEN -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NYK	NBA	DEN	NYK	NBA
this game	18.2	14.8	15.6	94.3	101.1	104.4
season	15.2	15.1		102.3	102.0
opponent	16.1	15.3		98.8	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.3	16.4	20.1	20.4	18.2
NYK	14.4	14.9	16.8	13.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brooks Thompson	16	16	-0.08	-0.41	0.33	-0.02	-2	-5	3	18.8	18.0	0.78	15.5	14.6	0.90
Tom Hammonds	14	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-3	-1	17.1	18.4	-1.23	13.4	15.0	-1.58
Ervin Johnson	71	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-6	5	18.7	15.9	2.82	15.0	13.9	1.02
Dale Ellis	56	57	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-3	-1	19.1	16.6	2.47	14.8	14.7	0.13
Antonio McDyess	65	66	-0.38	-0.11	-0.27	-0.24	-5	-2	-3	17.6	19.8	-2.20	14.9	14.3	0.65
Bryant Stith	74	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-4	1	18.6	15.9	2.64	14.8	14.7	0.08
Mark Jackson	79	81	-0.44	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-1	-5	17.6	23.4	-5.73	14.7	15.0	-0.26
LaPhonso Ellis	60	60	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.29	-10	3	-13	17.6	19.4	-1.79	14.4	15.5	-1.03

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Starks	46	45	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-5	17	13.7	16.0	-2.28	17.7	18.7	-0.96
Patrick Ewing	73	72	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	0	7	15.2	12.6	2.61	18.1	18.7	-0.60
Larry Johnson	64	64	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	0	7	15.2	13.6	1.62	17.7	19.4	-1.72
Buck Williams	32	31	0.34	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	5	-3	13.8	15.3	-1.54	18.5	18.0	0.43
Chris Childs	56	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.32	-2	9	-11	15.5	13.4	2.08	17.4	19.5	-2.07
Charlie Ward	32	33	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.03	9	-2	11	13.4	15.5	-2.08	19.5	17.4	2.07
John Wallace	15	14	0.19	0.30	-0.11	0.10	3	4	-1	12.4	15.2	-2.85	22.6	17.3	5.24
Charles Oakley	71	71	0.16	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	2	3	14.7	14.8	-0.08	18.2	18.2	-0.10
Allan Houston	51	51	-0.28	0.77	-1.05	-0.04	-8	15	-23	15.9	13.2	2.67	17.9	18.5	-0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.47,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.79,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 81, UTA 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	93.4%
POR 96, UTA 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.19,0.2,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.67,0.84,0.9,0.91,1	93.2%
NJN 82, ORL 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.83,0.96,1	93.0%