NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	4.4 [969]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +30.6%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	1.0 [713]		LVP	Ryan Anderson (ORL): -13.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.31	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.31	0.33	0.03	0.06	25	76%	0.35	3	-0.04	17	82%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	3	44%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04
James Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	12	41%	0.02	2	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Mike Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	12	44%	-0.00	1	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.03	9	56%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.00	0.05	12	69%	0.10	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.03
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.04	9	42%	0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	72%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	14	64%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	6	58%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	13	44%	-0.04	2	-0.05	13	23%	-0.12
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.05	0.07	10	41%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	1.7	31.8	19.7	31.7	2.8	42.2	160.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.6%

MIA +10.9%

ORL -4.0%

MIA +2.2%

MIA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.3	15.5	116.9	108.7	105.7
season	16.0	15.2		109.0	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.6		101.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	18.1	17.8	15.3	16.6
ORL	16.4	17.1	15.7	12.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	64	68	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-11	26	16.1	17.7	-1.59	15.5	14.7	0.82
LeBron James	80	82	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.41	2	2	0	16.6	16.1	0.51	14.9	18.4	-3.51
Eddie House	60	58	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.42	-5	9	-14	17.6	14.5	3.05	14.8	16.0	-1.16
Chris Bosh	68	73	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.39	-6	10	-16	16.6	16.5	0.13	15.6	14.2	1.40
Joel Anthony	41	42	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	5	-6	15.5	17.5	-1.92	13.9	16.5	-2.60
Erick Dampier	43	43	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.23	-1	5	-6	17.7	15.6	2.09	16.1	14.6	1.54
Mike Miller	40	41	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	3	-2	15.3	17.6	-2.31	14.9	15.6	-0.67
James Jones	19	18	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	0	4	16.9	16.5	0.41	14.6	15.4	-0.89
Mario Chalmers	25	28	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	-1	6	16.9	16.5	0.43	17.0	14.5	2.48
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	5	7	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	-2	8	15.8	16.6	-0.82	18.7	15.0	3.73

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gilbert Arenas	56	54	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.34	8	-12	20	14.3	16.8	-2.47	15.7	17.9	-2.16
Quentin Richardson	34	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	0	-4	15.1	15.3	-0.20	18.4	15.4	3.02
Earl Clark	27	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	3	-10	14.7	15.5	-0.75	17.1	16.3	0.83
Ryan Anderson	34	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.36	6	-10	16	15.2	15.3	-0.06	15.6	17.1	-1.42
Jason Richardson	59	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-10	16	15.7	14.4	1.32	15.5	18.6	-3.18
Jameer Nelson	69	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-6	8	15.1	15.7	-0.51	16.8	15.9	0.95
JJ Redick	32	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	3	-10	15.3	15.2	0.06	16.9	16.4	0.52
Dwight Howard	92	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	15.3	0.0	15.27	16.6	0.0	16.57
Hedo Turkoglu	57	54	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.03	-20	16	-36	16.2	13.7	2.47	17.2	15.6	1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.22,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 98, CHA 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
DAL 103, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0	95.2%
NOP 99, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.26,0.15,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%