NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	109		Excitement	6.7 [486]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +28.4%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	1.8 [676]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -13.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28	0.21	0.15	0.07	16	76%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	11	71%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Gary Forbes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Melvin Ely	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.02	5	81%	0.10	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Carmelo Anthony	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,0,0	-0.08	0.07	-0.01	16	45%	0.14	5	-0.14	8	100%	0.06
Ty Lawson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	36%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Al Harrington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	13	38%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,0,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.11	0.05	12	68%	0.20	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.01	6	70%	0.07	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	58%	0.10	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	61%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
DaJuan Summers	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	10	56%	0.05	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.02
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	14	36%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.6	2.7	33.0	17.6	29.2	1.8	34.3	150.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +52.6%

DEN +8.7%

DET -8.7%

DEN +1.5%

DET -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DET	NBA	DEN	DET	NBA
this game	15.2	16.8	15.5	119.8	112.4	105.7
season	14.3	16.7		110.7	106.4
opponent	15.2	15.5		110.1	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	15.0	16.6	15.5	15.2
DET	17.6	15.0	16.1	18.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	68	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	-2	13	15.9	13.1	2.75	16.4	18.0	-1.58
Melvin Ely	35	33	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	2	5	15.6	14.9	0.72	18.2	16.0	2.19
Chauncey Billups	60	58	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	2	5	16.2	13.2	3.07	16.6	17.4	-0.80
Arron Afflalo	76	75	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	5	-1	15.5	13.5	2.06	16.2	20.4	-4.18
J.R. Smith	41	42	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	2	5	14.2	16.0	-1.72	17.1	16.6	0.54
Ty Lawson	32	32	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.10	5	4	1	13.3	16.2	-2.89	17.3	16.6	0.70
Al Harrington	73	70	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.24	0	9	-9	15.1	15.7	-0.60	17.0	16.1	0.99
Gary Forbes	28	27	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	6	-3	13.1	16.1	-3.06	17.8	16.4	1.36
Shelden Williams	42	42	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	8	-7	15.5	14.9	0.67	16.4	17.3	-0.90

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DaJuan Summers	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-10	11	0.0	16.8	-16.83	4.0	15.3	-11.31
Rodney Stuckey	20	19	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-8	7	18.4	16.4	2.09	14.5	15.4	-0.90
Ben Wallace	41	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.13	1	-10	11	17.4	16.3	1.08	14.8	15.5	-0.66
Greg Monroe	51	51	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-8	7	15.8	18.2	-2.45	16.3	13.8	2.47
Chris Wilcox	32	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-3	-3	17.2	16.6	0.65	15.1	15.2	-0.16
Charlie Villanueva	28	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-3	-3	18.4	16.1	2.23	14.4	15.5	-1.08
Tracy McGrady	66	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-4	-1	16.4	18.2	-1.81	15.7	13.8	1.91
Ben Gordon	52	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	-2	-5	15.9	18.1	-2.23	15.1	15.4	-0.33
Will Bynum	39	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-4	-1	17.3	16.5	0.85	14.8	15.5	-0.78
Tayshaun Prince	69	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-3	-3	16.7	17.2	-0.48	16.0	12.7	3.30
Austin Daye	47	48	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	1	-11	17.0	16.6	0.40	14.0	16.5	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.38,0.3,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.4,0.23,0.25,0.21,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 97, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.31,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.05,0	93.3%
MIN 102, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.23,0.32,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.08,0.02,0,0	93.2%
MEM 94, DEN 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.31,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.09,0	92.4%