NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Excitement	6.5 [494]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIN): +9.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	98		Comeback	1.3 [429]		LVP	Earl Watson (MEM): -11.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1	0.11	0.04	0.06	14	78%	0.22	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Fred Hoiberg	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	82%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Keith McLeod	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Trent	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	16	55%	-0.01	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	15	54%	-0.03	2	-0.06	9	56%	-0.06

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.02	0.04	17	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.05	14	67%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	7	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	7	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	0.06	18	49%	-0.08	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	513.8	2.5	29.3	15.8	28.3	2.4	32.4	624.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +55.3%

MIN +9.3%

MIN +0.7%

MEM -16.0%

MIN +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MEM	NBA	MIN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.3	15.4	15.7	105.2	101.0	100.5
season	15.6	15.3		103.2	102.3
opponent	15.7	16.1		100.5	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.5	14.0	13.2	13.8	14.3
MEM	16.2	16.0	15.6	13.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Latrell Sprewell	80	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	0	4	13.8	16.7	-2.89	15.8	13.0	2.80
Fred Hoiberg	56	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	-1	6	14.7	13.8	0.93	15.1	15.8	-0.73
Kevin Garnett	83	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	-4	12	13.6	18.7	-5.14	15.7	13.2	2.52
Sam Cassell	62	61	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	3	-2	13.6	15.6	-1.96	15.3	15.4	-0.07
Ervin Johnson	19	19	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	0	4	13.8	14.4	-0.59	17.1	15.0	2.09
Gary Trent	56	55	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.43	-8	12	-20	15.0	13.3	1.69	14.4	16.7	-2.33
Keith McLeod	35	36	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	1	2	15.6	13.6	1.96	15.4	15.3	0.07
Michael Olowokandi	36	37	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	0	4	15.2	13.8	1.35	15.2	15.5	-0.29
Trenton Hassell	58	57	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	5	-6	14.6	13.8	0.79	15.1	15.8	-0.77

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stromile Swift	43	43	0.14	-0.65	0.79	-0.15	10	-14	24	15.8	15.0	0.84	15.7	13.2	2.43
Jason Williams	76	78	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.34	8	-12	20	14.9	17.0	-2.08	14.2	14.7	-0.52
Mike Miller	75	76	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.34	7	-11	18	14.8	17.3	-2.52	14.3	14.4	-0.08
Shane Battier	56	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.31	3	-7	10	14.6	16.4	-1.81	13.7	15.1	-1.35
Pau Gasol	81	81	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.39	5	-9	14	15.0	17.2	-2.18	13.8	16.7	-2.91
James Posey	41	41	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.07	-7	3	-10	16.4	14.6	1.81	15.1	13.7	1.35
Jake Tsakalidis	29	30	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.07	-14	10	-24	16.6	14.9	1.68	13.8	14.6	-0.80
Wesley Person	22	21	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	7	-18	17.3	14.8	2.52	14.4	14.3	0.08
Earl Watson	21	19	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	8	-20	17.0	14.9	2.08	14.7	14.2	0.52
Bo Outlaw	41	40	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.29	-9	5	-14	14.8	15.8	-1.07	14.2	14.4	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.23,0.32,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.08,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 102, MEM 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.35,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.4%
DEN 109, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.38,0.3,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.4,0.23,0.25,0.21,0.05,0.01,0	93.2%
DAL 95, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.12,0.15,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.32,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	93.1%