NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	94		Excitement	7.9 [274]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +17.4%
Denver Nuggets	92		Comeback	1.4 [876]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -14.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.17	0.06	0.12	0.01	15	63%	0.23	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.10	0.04	0.02	12	63%	0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Nick Calathes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	7	64%	0.14	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,0.06,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	15	53%	0.14	2	-0.10	8	50%	-0.05
Ed Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	7	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	4	10%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	19	32%	-0.06	2	-0.09	3	33%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	8	62%	0.15	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.01	0.05	15	62%	0.10	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.04
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jan Vesely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	4	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Quincy Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	14	46%	0.04	2	-0.07	9	56%	-0.05
Randy Foye	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	13	50%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	9	36%	-0.11	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	30.0	15.6	28.4	2.6	41.0	144.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +20.9%

DEN -3.0%

MEM +30.0%

DEN -0.2%

MEM +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	19.1	13.4	15.1	105.6	104.5	105.2
season	16.4	14.0		104.5	104.5
opponent	14.9	15.2		106.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	17.8	19.5	17.0	22.6	19.1
DEN	15.7	11.8	12.9	13.4	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	61	60	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.56	1	1	0	20.0	17.0	3.03	14.0	12.1	1.89
Courtney Lee	64	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	-2	6	18.3	21.0	-2.73	13.3	13.8	-0.49
Mike Miller	32	33	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.06	8	-6	14	17.5	19.9	-2.42	14.2	13.0	1.25
Nick Calathes	33	34	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.02	9	-7	16	17.2	20.2	-2.92	14.7	12.6	2.08
Marc Gasol	62	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.41	-6	8	-14	19.0	19.3	-0.26	13.0	14.3	-1.25
Mike Conley	56	54	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.42	-7	9	-16	20.2	17.2	2.92	12.6	14.7	-2.08
Tayshaun Prince	54	52	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.37	-6	8	-14	19.8	17.9	1.87	13.0	14.1	-1.15
Kosta Koufos	35	34	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	-2	6	19.5	18.8	0.72	13.8	13.2	0.54
Tony Allen	28	27	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.11	-2	4	-6	21.2	18.1	3.06	13.7	13.3	0.39
Ed Davis	20	21	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	-3	8	15.6	20.1	-4.42	12.3	13.8	-1.51

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenneth Faried	57	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-10	18	12.8	14.5	-1.67	20.5	16.5	4.08
Jan Vesely	31	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	0	-2	14.3	13.0	1.28	18.6	19.3	-0.67
Randy Foye	72	74	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.48	9	-11	20	13.5	13.1	0.45	19.9	15.1	4.75
Aaron Brooks	54	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-4	6	12.9	14.3	-1.41	19.3	18.8	0.51
Quincy Miller	31	33	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	6	-14	14.6	12.8	1.77	18.8	19.3	-0.51
Evan Fournier	33	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	6	-14	14.2	13.0	1.25	17.5	19.9	-2.42
Timofey Mozgov	56	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-2	2	13.2	13.8	-0.60	19.3	18.6	0.67
Ty Lawson	73	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-1	0	13.0	15.5	-2.45	18.9	19.7	-0.79
Darrell Arthur	33	32	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	8	-18	13.8	13.2	0.62	16.5	20.5	-4.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.31,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 81, IND 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.28,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.4,0.27,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.08,0	93.5%
LAL 97, UTA 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0	92.8%
SEA 103, LAL 95	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.05,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.4,0.31,0.15,0.03,0,0	92.6%