NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	97		Excitement	6.7 [463]		MVP	Jiri Welsch (BOS): +25.9%
Houston Rockets	93		Comeback	1.6 [337]		LVP	Marcus Banks (BOS): -19.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jiri Welsch	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.26,0.26	0.16	0.11	0.01	8	105%	0.35	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Mark Blount	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.11	-0.01	10	50%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.13	-0.00	0.01	15	66%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	15	64%	0.15	3	-0.09	12	92%	0.09
Chris Mihm	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	5	80%	0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.05	-0.01	6	25%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.00	7	26%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Marcus Banks	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.07	-0.00	2	33%	-0.03	5	-0.17	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.01	13	56%	0.13	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	0.00	0.06	13	84%	0.16	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	17	44%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	17	53%	0.06	6	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	27.8	16.0	25.1	2.4	30.5	128.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +30.5%

BOS +27.7%

HOU -17.1%

BOS +9.0%

HOU -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	HOU	NBA	BOS	HOU	NBA
this game	14.4	17.6	15.7	107.8	103.3	100.5
season	14.4	16.5		99.5	98.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		97.1	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.5	13.0	16.0	14.9	14.4
HOU	19.8	19.2	15.3	16.4	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Davis	41	43	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.03	18	-14	32	13.1	15.4	-2.33	18.3	17.1	1.19
Marcus Banks	38	40	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.00	16	-12	28	13.3	15.1	-1.77	17.6	17.6	0.03
Mark Blount	66	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	2	0	14.4	14.2	0.16	18.4	15.7	2.78
Walter McCarty	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	0	4	14.3	14.5	-0.13	17.0	20.2	-3.14
Jiri Welsch	70	68	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.37	-5	9	-14	14.2	14.9	-0.69	17.6	17.9	-0.30
Paul Pierce	71	71	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.40	-6	10	-16	14.9	12.5	2.33	17.1	19.8	-2.73
Chris Mihm	39	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	1	2	15.1	13.8	1.21	17.9	17.4	0.49
Mike James	52	50	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.39	-12	16	-28	15.1	13.3	1.77	17.6	17.6	-0.03

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	50	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-6	8	18.3	16.7	1.59	14.7	14.0	0.76
Mike Wilks	4	5	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	1	-6	23.2	17.4	5.88	12.6	14.5	-1.87
Yao Ming	44	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-2	0	18.6	16.7	1.83	15.0	13.9	1.12
Scott Padgett	23	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.23	2	-6	8	15.9	18.2	-2.31	12.6	15.0	-2.39
Eric Piatkowski	15	15	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	7	-18	18.9	17.4	1.56	11.1	15.0	-3.88
Cuttino Mobley	80	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-8	12	17.5	18.8	-1.31	14.7	11.4	3.25
Steve Francis	86	85	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-5	6	17.4	23.2	-5.88	14.5	12.6	1.87
Jim Jackson	87	86	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-4	4	17.3	26.7	-9.34	14.3	15.7	-1.45
Maurice Taylor	61	63	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.26	-11	7	-18	17.3	18.2	-0.90	14.8	13.3	1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.31,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 109, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.38,0.3,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.4,0.23,0.25,0.21,0.05,0.01,0	93.3%
CLE 105, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.03,0,0,0	93.0%
PHI 107, CLE 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.01,0.04,0	93.0%