NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	81		Excitement	8.5 [171]		MVP	David West (NOH): +15.8%
New Orleans Hornets	85		Comeback	6.3 [457]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -37.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0.15	0.02	0.11	-0.02	18	51%	0.27	2	-0.12	9	78%	0.06
Julian Wright	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.08	0.00	8	58%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Ed Davis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	8	65%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	12	68%	0.10	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.02
Joey Dorsey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sundiata Gaines	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	54%	0.03	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Andrea Bargnani	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.31	-0.13	-0.20	-0.02	17	30%	-0.23	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.37,-0.37	-0.23	-0.15	-0.00	5	0%	-0.18	7	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.07,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	18	57%	0.30	2	-0.14	4	75%	-0.03
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.07,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	13	61%	0.17	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	63%	0.10	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02
David Andersen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	10	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.05
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	10	30%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	8	30%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.05	-0.18	-0.00	8	31%	-0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.8	28.2	16.5	27.3	2.7	38.5	142.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -6.4%

TOR -11.5%

NOH +51.2%

NOH +17.0%

TOR -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NOH	NBA	TOR	NOH	NBA
this game	16.0	16.9	15.5	92.0	97.7	105.7
season	15.1	16.2		104.7	104.6
opponent	15.9	15.5		104.4	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.5	21.1	14.5	15.0	16.0
NOH	16.2	18.9	16.1	16.9	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Wright	55	55	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.13	-3	-1	-2	14.7	18.1	-3.36	16.3	17.9	-1.59
Joey Dorsey	14	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-4	4	16.6	15.9	0.69	17.3	16.9	0.42
Sundiata Gaines	42	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-2	0	16.8	15.2	1.62	16.5	17.4	-0.93
Amir Johnson	54	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.51	7	-11	18	15.8	16.3	-0.45	18.3	14.6	3.70
Jose Calderon	70	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.47	3	-7	10	15.7	17.3	-1.62	17.3	15.2	2.14
Andrea Bargnani	80	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-2	0	15.9	16.4	-0.42	16.1	23.6	-7.54
Ed Davis	53	50	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	4	-12	17.4	13.9	3.49	17.7	15.9	1.76
DeMar DeRozan	72	71	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.32	-15	11	-26	15.8	16.7	-0.93	16.6	18.6	-2.00

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emeka Okafor	69	68	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.30	18	-14	32	17.0	16.7	0.26	16.2	15.2	1.02
Trevor Ariza	65	64	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.38	10	-6	16	16.8	17.4	-0.58	15.8	16.5	-0.76
Jarrett Jack	47	49	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.42	5	-1	6	17.1	16.7	0.38	16.1	15.8	0.26
Chris Paul	58	56	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.29	9	-5	14	17.2	16.5	0.67	15.7	16.4	-0.71
David West	67	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	0	4	17.6	14.7	2.83	16.5	14.3	2.19
Willie Green	34	33	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.05	3	1	2	15.4	17.9	-2.54	14.5	16.9	-2.36
Marco Belinelli	27	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	2	0	17.6	16.6	0.96	16.9	15.6	1.27
Marcus Thornton	28	31	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	11	-18	16.5	17.1	-0.64	15.6	16.2	-0.58
David Andersen	7	8	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	8	-12	16.3	17.0	-0.70	17.2	15.9	1.39
Jason Smith	24	25	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	13	-22	15.6	17.4	-1.80	14.9	16.4	-1.55
Quincy Pondexter	9	10	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.07	-11	15	-26	19.6	16.6	2.93	18.6	15.7	2.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.47,0.64,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 99, CLE 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.43,0.42,0.26,0.33,0.28,0.46,0.46,0.68,0.72,1	91.7%
MEM 87, LAC 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.29,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.77,0.9,1	91.7%
MIL 99, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.96,1	91.4%