NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	8.5 [201]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +64.3%
Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Comeback	4.1 [516]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (CLE): -21.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.44	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.29,0.24,0.4,0.31,0.55,0.44	0.15	0.28	-0.01	36	54%	0.47	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	67%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.07	0.00	4	125%	0.19	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jason Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	10	29%	-0.03	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.64,0.64	0.64	0.28	0.40	0.03	25	73%	0.76	4	-0.11	14	93%	0.05
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.15	0.00	8	75%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	5	71%	0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	9	52%	0.07	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Ira Newble	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Drew Gooden	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	5	43%	-0.05	3	-0.08	4	0%	-0.07
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	13	23%	-0.22	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	3.4	31.4	16.8	30.2	3.4	35.3	149.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +45.6%

MIA -22.4%

CLE +19.5%

CLE +6.0%

CLE +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.6	107.6	114.0	104.4
season	15.5	16.2		106.1	105.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.8	14.8	15.5	17.0	14.9
CLE	15.5	18.6	15.1	15.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	39	40	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-11	15	14.7	15.1	-0.33	18.1	14.7	3.39
Derek Anderson	47	47	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-9	11	14.3	15.6	-1.39	16.3	16.1	0.25
Jason Williams	49	51	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.16	-5	-2	-3	14.2	15.7	-1.52	15.5	17.0	-1.56
Udonis Haslem	67	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-7	7	15.0	14.7	0.35	15.9	16.8	-0.88
Wayne Simien	34	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-2	-3	14.0	15.5	-1.48	16.3	16.1	0.15
Dwyane Wade	83	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-6	5	15.0	14.6	0.42	16.0	17.9	-1.91
Antoine Walker	43	44	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.08	-13	6	-19	15.5	14.4	1.08	15.1	17.2	-2.09
Shandon Anderson	47	47	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	0	-7	15.9	14.0	1.92	17.2	15.2	1.97
Gary Payton	51	52	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.37	-10	3	-13	15.5	14.3	1.20	15.9	16.5	-0.61

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anderson Varejao	45	44	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.41	14	-7	21	15.7	16.6	-0.89	15.6	14.3	1.30
Damon Jones	51	52	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-5	17	15.9	16.6	-0.73	15.3	14.4	0.86
LeBron James	89	88	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.23	13	-6	19	16.2	17.0	-0.84	14.8	18.2	-3.47
Donyell Marshall	48	47	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	3	1	15.7	16.7	-0.96	15.4	14.4	0.96
Ronald Murray	64	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	3	1	16.0	16.7	-0.72	14.8	15.2	-0.34
Ira Newble	12	12	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	5	-3	13.7	16.6	-2.90	13.4	15.2	-1.75
Eric Snow	44	43	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	10	-13	16.2	16.2	-0.07	14.2	15.6	-1.45
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	51	51	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.18	1	6	-5	17.5	14.6	2.83	15.0	14.8	0.23
Sasha Pavlovic	22	21	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.09	-4	11	-15	17.4	15.8	1.59	17.0	14.3	2.68
Drew Gooden	39	40	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.01	-8	15	-23	16.6	15.9	0.77	13.7	15.9	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.43,0.42,0.26,0.33,0.28,0.46,0.46,0.68,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, LAC 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.29,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.77,0.9,1	92.1%
TOR 81, NOH 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.47,0.64,0.55,0.73,1	91.7%
DAL 94, LAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.29,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.24,0.27,0.53,0.64,0.55,0.83,1	91.2%