NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	108		Excitement	6.1 [609]		MVP	Jason Richardson (ORL): +18.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Comeback	3.4 [726]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (ORL): -10.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.19	0.12	0.06	0.00	13	70%	0.20	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.10	0.02	-0.02	15	62%	0.15	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.01	11	62%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	5	75%	0.11	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Earl Clark	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.08	4	-0.11	9	67%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	13	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	9	32%	-0.04	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	15	56%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.03	-0.01	15	64%	0.13	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	72%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	5	75%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	6	57%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	11	36%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	12	42%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	0.6	29.5	15.7	26.7	2.7	38.0	140.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +23.7%

ORL +10.2%

MIN -4.1%

ORL +19.6%

ORL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIN	NBA	ORL	MIN	NBA
this game	13.9	15.2	15.5	110.2	99.0	105.7
season	15.2	14.3		106.3	102.7
opponent	15.1	16.2		109.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.4	14.8	13.1	13.5	13.9
MIN	16.2	14.6	15.7	14.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	67	69	0.79	-0.29	1.07	-0.09	30	-21	51	13.0	16.0	-3.00	14.8	15.9	-1.03
Dwight Howard	78	80	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-2	13	14.0	13.4	0.59	15.0	15.9	-0.92
Ryan Anderson	59	59	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	4	1	14.4	13.2	1.18	16.0	14.0	2.01
Gilbert Arenas	45	42	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	-2	13	14.0	13.9	0.07	16.3	14.3	1.98
Jason Richardson	71	73	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.36	-6	15	-21	14.2	13.1	1.06	14.9	15.9	-1.00
Jameer Nelson	53	58	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.22	-2	11	-13	13.9	14.0	-0.07	14.3	16.3	-1.98
JJ Redick	65	66	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	11	-13	14.1	13.6	0.47	15.0	15.4	-0.34
Brandon Bass	50	50	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	8	-7	13.9	13.9	0.04	15.5	14.8	0.72
Earl Clark	2	3	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	12	-15	11.0	14.0	-2.98	14.3	15.2	-0.85

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Johnson	43	41	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.14	9	-18	27	15.0	15.3	-0.32	15.2	13.0	2.28
Anthony Tolliver	36	36	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-11	13	14.2	15.7	-1.51	13.5	14.2	-0.66
Jonny Flynn	26	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	1	-11	17.4	14.4	3.01	12.3	14.5	-2.14
Darko Milicic	39	39	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-2	-5	15.9	14.7	1.25	13.7	14.0	-0.29
Luke Ridnour	74	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-10	11	14.4	17.4	-3.01	14.5	12.3	2.14
Nikola Pekovic	35	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.13	-6	-3	-3	16.7	14.4	2.30	14.3	13.7	0.66
Wayne Ellington	51	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	0	-9	15.3	15.1	0.19	13.3	14.6	-1.34
Corey Brewer	73	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-6	3	14.5	16.8	-2.27	14.1	13.5	0.60
Martell Webster	33	34	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.00	-15	6	-21	16.6	14.4	2.16	12.9	14.4	-1.50
Kevin Love	90	86	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	14.6	19.9	-5.27	14.0	13.3	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 94, BOS 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.19,0.18,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	93.9%
UTA 103, LAC 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.54,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.21,0.1,0.19,0.25,0.17,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.7%
HOU 107, CHA 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.2%