NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Excitement	5.8 [670]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (OKC): +18.5%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	2.6 [555]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -19.2%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.07	0.00	6	87%	0.18	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Kevin Durant	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	22	57%	0.16	3	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Eric Maynor	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nenad Krstic	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	6	44%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jeff Green	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	17	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.08
Russell Westbrook	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	16	39%	-0.00	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	17	69%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	-0.00	5	70%	0.11	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	58%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominique Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	56%	0.06	5	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.02	16	58%	0.07	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.13	12	58%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	7	0%	-0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	3.3	28.7	19.5	24.5	3.5	34.4	137.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +25.4%

DAL -0.1%

OKC +9.6%

OKC +17.4%

DAL -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DAL	NBA	OKC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.0	16.5	15.5	107.6	104.4	105.7
season	15.0	15.7		108.8	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.8	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.5	14.1	15.5	16.1	15.0
DAL	14.9	15.3	19.8	16.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	71	69	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.38	6	-2	8	15.6	12.9	2.70	16.7	16.0	0.71
Kevin Durant	83	83	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.38	4	0	4	15.0	15.3	-0.38	16.4	17.4	-0.97
James Harden	48	49	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	5	-6	14.2	15.9	-1.72	16.9	16.1	0.79
Serge Ibaka	44	46	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	2	0	14.5	15.4	-0.85	17.5	15.4	2.08
Russell Westbrook	70	68	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	2	0	15.1	14.7	0.40	16.3	17.0	-0.68
Eric Maynor	22	23	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	2	0	14.7	15.1	-0.40	17.0	16.3	0.68
Thabo Sefolosha	58	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	-4	12	15.3	14.5	0.78	16.2	17.0	-0.82
Nenad Krstic	41	39	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	-1	6	15.6	14.5	1.08	16.1	16.8	-0.64
Nick Collison	23	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.17	-8	12	-20	14.0	15.3	-1.32	14.8	17.0	-2.27

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ian Mahinmi	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-11	18	8.3	16.8	-8.44	10.5	15.2	-4.69
Brian Cardinal	30	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-4	4	17.8	15.9	1.90	13.8	15.6	-1.81
Jose Juan Barea	44	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.27	6	-10	16	17.1	15.9	1.24	13.5	16.4	-2.90
Dominique Jones	8	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-5	6	13.9	16.7	-2.87	11.6	15.4	-3.81
Brendan Haywood	26	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-6	8	16.1	16.6	-0.53	12.7	15.9	-3.18
Tyson Chandler	65	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	2	-8	16.6	16.1	0.53	15.9	12.7	3.18
Shawn Marion	68	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	3	-10	16.6	16.2	0.37	16.2	12.0	4.11
Jason Kidd	72	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.21	-7	3	-10	16.7	15.6	1.16	16.0	11.2	4.76
DeShawn Stevenson	67	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.29	-6	2	-8	15.8	18.5	-2.67	14.9	15.3	-0.37
Jason Terry	72	72	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.20	-10	6	-16	16.5	16.4	0.16	15.1	14.5	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	94.4%
CHI 103, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.04,0	94.2%
POR 103, OKC 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.7%