NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	4.8 [893]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +20.7%
Phoenix Suns	83		Comeback	2.3 [814]		LVP	Grant Hill (PHX): -10.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.08	0.03	22	69%	0.29	5	-0.08	8	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.03	-0.02	17	59%	0.16	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	11	50%	0.06	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	12	46%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	9	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Dudley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.26	-0.01	0.09	16	87%	0.23	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Channing Frye	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	63%	0.07	4	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	10%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	4	40%	-0.02	5	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	12	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.4	29.4	20.5	27.8	3.0	32.0	146.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.8%

MIA +16.6%

MIA +5.6%

MIA +11.2%

PHX -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHX	NBA	MIA	PHX	NBA
this game	17.8	13.2	15.5	103.3	88.3	105.7
season	16.0	14.5		109.0	108.0
opponent	15.7	15.6		109.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.1	16.8	17.6	19.6	17.8
PHX	13.6	15.2	12.4	12.0	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	67	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	2	8	17.9	17.5	0.40	12.9	14.2	-1.26
Chris Bosh	72	73	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	3	6	17.9	17.3	0.60	12.9	14.5	-1.65
Joel Anthony	44	45	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	1	10	17.2	18.3	-1.09	15.0	11.7	3.28
Mario Chalmers	50	52	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	0	12	17.6	18.0	-0.33	13.9	12.4	1.52
Mike Miller	37	37	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.12	17	-5	22	16.0	19.0	-2.96	14.9	12.2	2.76
LeBron James	72	74	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.15	4	8	-4	18.3	15.9	2.33	12.6	15.8	-3.25
Erick Dampier	31	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	9	-6	18.1	17.6	0.49	12.7	13.5	-0.85
Juwan Howard	26	28	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.06	6	6	0	17.8	17.8	-0.00	12.7	13.5	-0.81
Carlos Arroyo	50	51	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.26	-7	19	-26	18.4	17.1	1.29	12.8	13.8	-0.96
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	11	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	17	-22	18.3	17.7	0.57	11.8	13.5	-1.62

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	70	69	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-17	22	12.2	16.2	-3.98	18.7	14.9	3.81
Steve Nash	63	62	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-12	12	12.1	15.5	-3.34	18.7	15.8	2.88
Robin Lopez	53	51	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-14	16	12.3	14.5	-2.20	18.9	16.4	2.54
Josh Childress	20	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.09	-10	-2	-8	14.5	12.9	1.59	17.3	17.9	-0.64
Channing Frye	71	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	-8	4	12.3	16.3	-3.99	18.2	16.4	1.83
Hakim Warrick	23	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-4	-4	16.3	12.3	3.99	16.4	18.2	-1.83
Jared Dudley	82	81	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-9	6	12.4	19.2	-6.79	18.1	15.1	3.04
Marcin Gortat	33	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	1	-14	16.2	11.7	4.53	15.4	19.1	-3.66
Goran Dragic	31	30	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	0	-12	15.5	12.1	3.34	15.8	18.7	-2.88
Mickael Pietrus	24	23	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.11	-17	5	-22	16.2	12.2	3.98	14.9	18.7	-3.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 91, UTA 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0	95.0%
DAL 106, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.6%
NJN 90, HOU 77	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0	94.5%