NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	98		Excitement	6.1 [618]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +34.4%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	1.5 [1006]		LVP	Andre Miller (POR): -18.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.34	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.33,0.33,0.34	0.12	0.23	0.01	26	56%	0.34	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.10	0.03	-0.01	13	63%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	10	52%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Patty Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	5	15%	-0.09	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.18,-0.18	-0.03	-0.15	0.00	6	69%	0.05	4	-0.24	1	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.13	-0.00	19	56%	0.22	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,0.02,0.14,0.19	0.19	0.03	0.17	0.01	14	60%	0.29	3	-0.10	7	100%	0.05
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.00	5	85%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	92%	0.14	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	12	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.8	32.0	18.7	25.5	3.6	36.2	143.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +18.4%

DAL +25.4%

DAL +2.8%

DAL +4.3%

POR -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.8	15.5	108.9	115.7	105.7
season	16.5	15.7		106.7	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.8	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	20.7	15.0	15.5	14.8	16.4
DAL	13.6	15.6	16.5	17.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	25	26	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.13	7	-12	19	15.0	17.0	-2.02	15.3	16.0	-0.68
Joel Przybilla	9	8	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.04	2	-7	9	16.9	16.4	0.52	17.4	15.6	1.78
Rudy Fernandez	32	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-3	1	17.2	16.0	1.24	14.4	16.5	-2.10
Marcus Camby	39	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	0	-5	16.8	16.1	0.70	16.3	15.3	1.03
Nicolas Batum	50	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-6	7	16.1	16.8	-0.72	15.5	16.0	-0.49
Dante Cunningham	44	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	3	-11	17.3	15.6	1.71	15.0	16.5	-1.53
Brandon Roy	56	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	15.7	17.6	-1.87	16.1	15.2	0.84
Wesley Matthews	58	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	16.0	17.2	-1.24	16.5	14.4	2.10
LaMarcus Aldridge	78	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	16.3	17.0	-0.67	15.7	16.5	-0.80
Andre Miller	59	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.16	-10	5	-15	17.1	15.1	2.02	16.0	15.4	0.59

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	62	64	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-9	23	15.1	17.1	-2.00	16.5	16.2	0.27
Jason Kidd	66	68	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.23	13	-8	21	15.3	17.2	-1.92	16.7	15.5	1.16
Jason Terry	61	60	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	-4	13	16.0	15.2	0.73	16.0	17.2	-1.22
Tyson Chandler	64	66	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.27	8	-3	11	15.7	16.0	-0.29	16.6	16.0	0.63
Dirk Nowitzki	69	69	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.38	-6	11	-17	16.6	12.8	3.81	15.8	18.3	-2.49
Shawn Marion	47	47	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	3	-1	15.3	16.3	-0.96	17.2	15.6	1.57
Ian Mahinmi	5	6	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	1	3	14.0	15.9	-1.86	18.2	16.3	1.87
Jose Juan Barea	27	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	9	-13	16.3	15.5	0.83	15.9	16.7	-0.81
Brendan Haywood	19	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.11	-7	12	-19	17.3	15.3	1.92	15.2	16.7	-1.50
DeShawn Stevenson	25	25	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.13	-8	13	-21	15.3	15.9	-0.66	17.2	16.1	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.82,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.63,0.57,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 95, NOK 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.75,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.89,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.75,0.64,0.68,0.98,1	93.3%
IND 105, WAS 111	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.72,0.69,0.77,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.72,0.84,0.98,1	93.1%
OKC 90, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.78,0.9,0.72,0.86,0.91,1	91.9%