NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	105		Excitement	4.7 [906]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +14.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	117		Comeback	1.9 [953]		LVP	Ish Smith (HOU): -10.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	-0.00	0.04	14	65%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Courtney Lee	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	6	80%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	5	69%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	14	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	11	58%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Jordan Hill	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	10	54%	0.08	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chase Budinger	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	7	36%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.01	0.05	18	76%	0.21	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.03	-0.01	7	84%	0.19	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.02
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.02	12	68%	0.16	3	-0.06	7	100%	0.04
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.02	11	63%	0.08	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Royal Ivey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	0.01	0.09	8	75%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Byron Mullens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.5	31.8	15.7	25.4	2.5	30.5	133.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +21.0%

OKC +17.2%

OKC +13.4%

HOU -5.4%

OKC +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	16.4	14.9	15.5	114.1	127.2	105.7
season	15.2	15.0		109.5	108.8
opponent	15.6	14.9		105.4	107.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	15.8	15.8	19.2	16.4
OKC	14.4	14.8	16.2	14.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-16	20	18.8	16.2	2.56	17.2	14.8	2.40
Kevin Martin	52	52	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-12	12	16.3	16.4	-0.12	15.2	14.5	0.75
Charles Hayes	44	42	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-10	8	15.8	16.9	-1.08	15.7	14.2	1.50
Kyle Lowry	66	66	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-9	6	16.4	16.4	-0.06	15.2	14.2	1.02
Shane Battier	64	64	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-8	4	16.3	16.5	-0.17	14.9	15.0	-0.06
Brad Miller	23	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	-4	-4	15.2	16.8	-1.61	14.2	15.2	-0.94
Luis Scola	52	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-6	0	15.4	17.6	-2.25	15.4	14.3	1.02
Chase Budinger	28	29	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-3	-6	17.4	16.0	1.40	15.2	14.8	0.46
Ish Smith	26	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	-3	-6	16.4	16.4	0.06	14.2	15.2	-1.02
Jordan Hill	46	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	-1	-10	17.3	15.4	1.89	14.1	15.7	-1.59
Courtney Lee	54	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.14	-12	0	-12	16.9	15.7	1.19	14.1	16.0	-1.86

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	63	64	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.07	14	-2	16	15.0	14.7	0.29	17.4	14.1	3.27
Jeff Green	72	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	-1	14	15.2	14.0	1.18	16.5	15.9	0.61
James Harden	63	61	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	2	8	14.5	15.8	-1.32	16.0	17.0	-0.98
Kevin Durant	67	68	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	-3	18	14.4	16.4	-2.08	17.2	14.2	3.00
Eric Maynor	33	32	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	8	-4	14.7	15.0	-0.31	15.2	17.0	-1.88
Nick Collison	27	26	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	3	6	13.8	15.4	-1.62	16.7	16.3	0.38
Russell Westbrook	59	60	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.06	8	4	4	15.0	14.7	0.31	17.0	15.2	1.88
Serge Ibaka	45	46	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	9	-6	15.2	14.7	0.45	15.9	16.8	-0.93
Royal Ivey	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	17	-22	17.3	14.8	2.49	9.0	16.5	-7.54
Byron Mullens	11	9	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	17	-22	17.5	14.6	2.87	14.9	16.5	-1.65
DJ White	17	18	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	18	-24	16.4	14.6	1.83	12.9	17.2	-4.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 84, NOP 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
BOS 77, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.71,0.85,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
NOH 86, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.9%