NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	99		Excitement	7.0 [421]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +28.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	106		Comeback	5.4 [297]		LVP	Steve Nash (PHX): -17.3%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Dudley	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13	0.08	0.03	-0.02	9	65%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Channing Frye	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.04	0.01	8	72%	0.17	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Grant Hill	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.04	0.07	0.04	18	61%	0.16	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	4	42%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Josh Childress	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	8	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	3	58%	0.01	3	-0.12	6	83%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.17	0.02	-0.16	0.03	16	65%	0.05	6	-0.23	5	80%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.17	0.02	15	63%	0.28	0	0.00	8	87%	0.04
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	-0.00	6	85%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.06	11	62%	0.11	1	-0.03	10	100%	0.06
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.02	9	67%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Armon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	15	51%	0.11	3	-0.13	9	100%	0.05
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	47%	0.05	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	2.8	29.4	16.7	25.1	2.4	42.6	148.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX -2.1%

POR +26.8%

PHX -19.2%

POR +42.1%

POR +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	POR	NBA	PHX	POR	NBA
this game	14.3	16.1	15.5	104.2	111.6	105.7
season	14.5	16.5		108.0	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.6	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.0	14.4	15.7	14.0	14.3
POR	18.3	15.6	17.8	13.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Barron	62	59	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-8	9	14.4	14.0	0.39	17.6	13.6	3.99
Hedo Turkoglu	40	38	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-3	-1	14.6	14.0	0.64	13.8	17.5	-3.70
Josh Childress	13	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-4	1	15.8	14.0	1.76	14.4	16.3	-1.94
Hakim Warrick	21	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-2	-3	14.7	14.1	0.59	16.3	16.0	0.27
Steve Nash	75	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.32	5	-12	17	14.0	15.2	-1.20	16.5	14.2	2.32
Channing Frye	55	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.27	-1	-6	5	13.9	14.7	-0.77	17.2	14.4	2.80
Goran Dragic	20	19	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	5	-17	15.2	14.0	1.20	14.2	16.5	-2.32
Jason Richardson	46	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-5	3	14.4	14.1	0.27	16.4	15.8	0.59
Jared Dudley	67	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.32	-7	0	-7	14.1	14.5	-0.40	15.0	18.6	-3.58
Grant Hill	76	78	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.36	-7	0	-7	13.8	16.0	-2.18	16.1	15.7	0.44

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	78	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.36	11	-4	15	16.2	15.7	0.49	14.3	14.1	0.16
Wesley Matthews	73	73	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-3	13	16.3	15.2	1.15	13.8	15.8	-1.98
Rudy Fernandez	43	44	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-5	17	15.5	16.6	-1.09	15.9	12.9	3.00
Nicolas Batum	57	59	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	-1	9	14.8	18.0	-3.18	15.0	13.1	1.88
Brandon Roy	74	73	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.28	-3	10	-13	16.4	14.8	1.67	13.9	15.5	-1.62
Armon Johnson	12	11	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	6	-5	17.2	15.9	1.36	13.0	14.4	-1.42
Dante Cunningham	14	14	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	6	-5	11.6	16.8	-5.18	13.3	14.4	-1.13
Joel Przybilla	20	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.11	3	4	-1	16.3	16.0	0.36	14.4	14.2	0.14
Patty Mills	58	57	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.15	0	7	-7	16.3	15.7	0.55	14.0	14.6	-0.54
Marcus Camby	47	47	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.02	-8	15	-23	17.6	14.5	3.12	13.9	14.6	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.54,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.54,0.45,0.84,0.84,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 72, MEM 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.46,0.78,0.97,1,1	91.7%
CHI 95, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.42,0.38,0.72,0.9,0.96,1	91.3%
HOU 104, MIA 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.64,0.91,0.99,1	91.2%