NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	7.2 [391]		MVP	Dale Ellis (MIL): +23.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	3.6 [717]		LVP	Kornel David (CHI): -26.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hersey Hawkins	0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	9	83%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dedric Willoughby	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	87%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	10	46%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Chris Anstey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	6	33%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	5	60%	-0.01	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Elton Brand	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	14	52%	0.10	3	-0.19	3	67%	-0.00
Kornel David	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.10	-0.16	0.01	9	45%	-0.07	4	-0.19	2	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.13	-0.00	12	71%	0.30	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	17	58%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	6	57%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	13	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	70%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	12	33%	-0.09	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.5	24.6	15.7	27.2	2.4	30.5	129.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -9.3%

MIL +12.5%

MIL +6.5%

MIL +39.7%

MIL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.0	15.2	106.7	113.3	101.7
season	16.5	14.9		91.8	105.5
opponent	15.4	14.9		105.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.4	18.3	16.5	19.4	17.2
MIL	13.4	16.0	13.5	17.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	24	26	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.04	5	-12	17	16.3	17.6	-1.24	15.0	15.0	0.01
Will Perdue	59	59	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.12	6	-13	19	17.3	17.1	0.26	15.2	14.5	0.77
Dedric Willoughby	38	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.31	8	-15	23	18.6	16.2	2.34	16.1	14.1	1.93
Metta World Peace	41	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-1	-5	15.9	18.4	-2.47	12.2	17.2	-4.98
Corey Benjamin	7	7	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	1	-9	19.0	17.1	1.91	11.4	15.3	-3.82
Hersey Hawkins	68	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-6	5	16.5	19.5	-2.99	14.6	16.0	-1.36
Kornel David	62	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-6	5	17.9	15.8	2.04	15.9	12.6	3.29
Chris Anstey	27	28	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.19	-12	5	-17	17.4	17.1	0.30	15.6	14.7	0.95
Randy Brown	65	65	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	6	-19	17.0	17.9	-0.87	15.0	14.8	0.22
Elton Brand	54	52	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.37	-13	6	-19	17.7	16.5	1.28	15.3	14.5	0.74

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Ellis	42	42	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.40	13	-6	19	16.1	14.0	2.14	18.5	16.1	2.48
Ervin Johnson	42	42	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-3	13	12.4	17.2	-4.74	16.1	18.3	-2.16
Ray Allen	73	71	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	5	-3	15.3	13.5	1.83	16.7	19.4	-2.70
J.R. Reid	33	33	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.03	10	-3	13	17.5	13.5	4.04	19.1	16.1	3.00
Sam Cassell	63	61	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.26	0	7	-7	13.9	17.4	-3.56	16.2	19.5	-3.25
Glenn Robinson	62	61	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.33	-4	11	-15	14.1	16.8	-2.66	16.9	18.0	-1.17
Vinny Del Negro	14	16	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	6	-5	15.0	14.9	0.05	19.9	16.7	3.22
Tim Thomas	41	39	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.14	6	1	5	15.5	14.5	1.02	18.0	16.7	1.31
Robert Traylor	38	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	8	-9	13.8	15.8	-1.97	15.3	18.6	-3.32
Danny Manning	42	43	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	9	-11	17.0	13.1	3.88	18.5	16.0	2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.42,0.38,0.72,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 75, MEM 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.68,0.78,0.97,1,1	92.3%
GSW 97, NYK 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.4,0.38,0.78,0.99,1,1	91.6%
PHX 99, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.54,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.54,0.45,0.84,0.84,0.99,1	91.3%