NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	75		Excitement	6.8 [494]		MVP	Shane Battier (MEM): +22.5%
Memphis Grizzlies	86		Comeback	3.6 [677]		LVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): -32.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.09	-0.02	14	61%	0.21	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Rafer Alston	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.01	13	55%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Pape Sow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	83%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Milt Palacio	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	10	43%	-0.02	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	6	64%	-0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Lamond Murray	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	5	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	5	43%	-0.06	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Morris Peterson	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	11	29%	-0.20	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.22,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.15	0.01	17	73%	0.36	5	-0.14	11	82%	0.05
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.01	14	67%	0.15	3	-0.13	2	0%	-0.05
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.05	7	35%	-0.06	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.01
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.09,-0.13,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.12	-0.13	0.01	13	42%	-0.07	4	-0.19	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	27.2	15.7	25.8	1.8	34.5	128.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +33.1%

MEM +17.8%

MEM +12.8%

TOR -12.9%

TOR -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MEM	NBA	TOR	MEM	NBA
this game	16.2	17.1	15.5	87.2	98.9	104.0
season	15.1	16.4		104.8	103.7
opponent	15.5	15.4		101.9	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.9	18.1	15.5	17.4	16.2
MEM	18.0	16.2	16.5	17.7	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamond Murray	24	24	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.02	7	-18	25	18.0	15.4	2.61	16.7	17.3	-0.63
Pape Sow	2	3	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.11	-2	-9	7	20.0	16.1	3.93	11.7	17.3	-5.65
Rafael Araujo	31	32	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-12	13	14.2	17.3	-3.08	18.3	16.4	1.93
Rafer Alston	64	64	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-9	7	15.5	18.2	-2.71	17.2	17.0	0.11
Jalen Rose	72	73	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.15	-2	-9	7	15.8	18.1	-2.37	17.2	16.8	0.41
Chris Bosh	47	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-3	-5	15.0	17.6	-2.61	17.8	16.3	1.53
Matt Bonner	52	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-7	3	17.1	14.8	2.31	16.6	17.9	-1.37
Milt Palacio	22	23	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-2	-7	18.2	15.5	2.71	17.0	17.2	-0.11
Morris Peterson	69	70	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.21	-15	4	-19	15.9	17.4	-1.56	17.2	17.0	0.16
Donyell Marshall	47	47	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.12	-21	10	-31	17.6	14.5	3.07	16.6	17.7	-1.06

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	51	49	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.16	17	-6	23	16.6	17.9	-1.25	17.5	14.4	3.08
James Posey	45	45	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-4	19	16.8	17.5	-0.72	17.7	14.4	3.29
Lorenzen Wright	82	81	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	-3	17	17.2	15.6	1.62	15.7	23.0	-7.26
Shane Battier	77	75	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.11	14	-3	17	17.2	16.6	0.59	15.3	21.7	-6.38
Brian Cardinal	68	68	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	1	9	18.0	13.9	4.13	15.9	17.1	-1.20
Ryan Humphrey	20	20	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	13	-15	13.2	18.3	-5.03	18.9	15.3	3.63
Mike Miller	56	55	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.12	-7	18	-25	17.5	16.5	0.95	15.9	16.6	-0.70
Jason Williams	36	37	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.02	-6	17	-23	17.9	16.6	1.25	14.4	17.5	-3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.68,0.78,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 100, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.38,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.72,0.62,0.78,0.77,0.92,1	92.5%
CHI 95, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.42,0.38,0.72,0.9,0.96,1	92.3%
SAC 113, HOU 120	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.58,0.36,0.54,0.4,0.75,0.71,0.9,0.99,1	91.9%