NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	104		Excitement	7.8 [282]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +50.6%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	3.1 [532]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -15.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	16	68%	0.29	4	-0.16	12	92%	0.04
Dwight Howard	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.06	0.01	12	70%	0.18	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.02
Terrence Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	7	80%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Omer Asik	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Donatas Motiejunas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.06	0.02	14	47%	0.11	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Jordan Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jeremy Lin	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	7	40%	-0.06	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.35,0.51,0.51,0.51	0.51	0.20	0.31	0.00	11	86%	0.51	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.20	0.04	15	65%	0.32	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.01	12	69%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.02	6	42%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	2	71%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	17	57%	0.05	5	-0.15	8	87%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.5	37.3	18.4	29.4	3.4	35.6	153.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.7%

MIA +4.1%

HOU -8.2%

MIA +9.4%

MIA +11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	16.4	15.1	114.3	122.8	105.2
season	14.3	15.6		109.5	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.2		105.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.7	15.0	13.8	17.1	15.0
MIA	16.0	16.3	15.6	18.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donatas Motiejunas	29	30	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.07	3	-12	15	18.1	13.6	4.54	17.1	16.1	0.95
Terrence Jones	52	52	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-11	13	13.1	17.7	-4.59	15.3	17.8	-2.48
Omer Asik	16	17	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-4	-1	19.5	14.1	5.41	17.8	16.1	1.64
Jordan Hamilton	13	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	-2	-5	19.2	14.4	4.79	16.6	16.4	0.18
Chandler Parsons	73	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-9	9	14.6	17.0	-2.44	16.6	15.8	0.80
Dwight Howard	75	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-5	1	14.1	19.5	-5.41	16.1	17.8	-1.64
Patrick Beverley	71	71	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.32	-5	-4	-1	14.1	18.3	-4.24	16.3	16.7	-0.38
James Harden	82	84	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.30	-7	-2	-5	14.7	17.8	-3.03	16.2	18.5	-2.27
Jeremy Lin	44	45	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.24	-22	13	-35	17.0	13.2	3.74	17.4	15.4	2.00

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	67	66	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.22	17	-8	25	16.3	16.8	-0.52	14.6	16.2	-1.59
LeBron James	83	82	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-2	13	16.3	17.2	-0.88	14.7	18.0	-3.28
Chris Bosh	69	66	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.29	8	1	7	16.2	17.2	-1.06	13.7	18.6	-4.90
Ray Allen	51	49	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	2	5	17.5	15.0	2.48	16.5	13.3	3.22
Norris Cole	45	44	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	2	5	17.4	15.5	1.87	16.7	13.4	3.30
Mario Chalmers	39	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	5	-1	15.4	17.2	-1.72	13.3	16.4	-3.11
Greg Oden	27	28	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	8	-7	14.4	17.2	-2.80	13.2	15.9	-2.69
Toney Douglas	3	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.01	-2	11	-13	19.0	16.3	2.66	14.3	15.1	-0.73
Shane Battier	37	39	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.08	-3	12	-15	16.3	16.5	-0.17	16.3	14.1	2.12
Chris Andersen	39	38	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.20	-5	14	-19	17.0	16.0	1.04	17.0	13.7	3.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.64,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, MIL 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.52,0.45,0.91,0.99,1	92.8%
ATL 98, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.48,0.32,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.54,0.9,0.91,1	92.7%
ORL 110, BKN 114	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.48,0.43,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.62,0.57,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.77,0.92,1	92.4%