NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	72		Excitement	7.0 [394]		MVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): +11.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	81		Comeback	2.0 [764]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -16.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	7	69%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	10	57%	0.12	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.04
JaVale McGee	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.03	11	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Timofey Mozgov	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	8	39%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.13	-0.03	5	47%	-0.01	3	-0.15	5	60%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	7	19%	-0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.00	0.12	0.01	18	49%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	9	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.06
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	13	46%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	12	29%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.8	28.3	16.3	26.4	2.7	33.3	131.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +6.0%

DEN -12.1%

MEM +29.2%

MEM +28.0%

DEN -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.6	19.9	15.4	85.7	97.6	104.1
season	14.4	16.5		108.4	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		99.1	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.1	12.8	12.9	16.2	14.6
MEM	20.8	19.3	20.8	18.9	19.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	39	37	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-10	11	13.4	15.7	-2.26	19.9	19.9	-0.07
Timofey Mozgov	23	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-4	-1	17.0	13.7	3.22	17.3	20.9	-3.60
Kosta Koufos	46	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-8	7	13.3	16.2	-2.91	20.7	18.9	1.81
Andre Miller	49	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-10	11	14.9	14.2	0.67	18.6	21.7	-3.08
Ty Lawson	48	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	-2	-5	14.7	14.6	0.11	21.2	18.1	3.04
Danilo Gallinari	52	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-1	-7	13.9	15.8	-1.93	20.4	19.1	1.27
Corey Brewer	51	50	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	-2	-5	15.6	13.0	2.62	19.2	20.9	-1.67
Kenneth Faried	41	43	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.30	-7	-2	-5	15.6	13.7	1.89	20.7	19.1	1.55
Andre Iguodala	71	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	3	-15	14.4	15.8	-1.45	19.9	19.8	0.07

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	28	26	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-2	13	18.6	20.5	-1.90	15.6	14.2	1.39
Mike Conley	50	52	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-1	11	20.3	19.3	1.00	14.1	15.5	-1.42
Jerryd Bayless	41	40	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.23	8	1	7	19.2	20.6	-1.35	15.1	14.2	0.92
Zach Randolph	51	52	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	1	7	21.0	18.2	2.84	13.1	17.0	-3.90
Hamed Haddadi	12	11	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.16	6	3	3	18.3	20.2	-1.84	18.1	14.1	4.00
Rudy Gay	57	60	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.15	2	7	-5	20.2	19.3	0.81	13.5	17.5	-3.97
Marreese Speights	26	27	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.07	1	8	-7	17.6	20.9	-3.33	17.6	13.2	4.33
Darrell Arthur	32	30	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.09	-1	10	-11	19.2	20.4	-1.17	16.0	13.8	2.20
Tony Allen	43	45	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	8	-7	20.6	19.1	1.50	13.7	15.7	-1.96
Marc Gasol	49	51	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	8	-7	20.6	18.9	1.73	13.9	15.7	-1.78
Quincy Pondexter	26	26	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	11	-13	20.2	19.8	0.48	16.4	13.8	2.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.46,0.78,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 87, ORL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.79,0.95,0.98,1	92.5%
SAS 71, PHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.84,1	92.1%
POR 60, NJN 64	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.54,0.33,0.53,0.89,0.91,0.98,1	92.0%