NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	99		Excitement	4.4 [963]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +8.0%
Oklahoma City Thunder	116		Comeback	1.1 [1159]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): -13.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luis Scola	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	19	62%	0.14	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Kevin Martin	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	70%	0.12	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.05
Ish Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.03	6	86%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	3	67%	0.06	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Courtney Lee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	6	25%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Jermaine Taylor	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0.03	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Shane Battier	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	6	19%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Kyle Lowry	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.02	21	56%	0.14	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.03	15	54%	0.13	3	-0.05	9	100%	0.05
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	61%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	46%	0.02	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	64%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	62%	0.04	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
DJ White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.00	0.07	7	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Royal Ivey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Byron Mullens	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	35.2	15.7	27.4	2.6	25.3	130.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +13.4%

OKC +8.4%

OKC +4.4%

OKC +23.2%

OKC +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	15.1	15.1	15.5	104.2	120.8	105.7
season	15.2	15.0		109.5	108.8
opponent	15.6	14.9		105.4	107.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.7	13.1	16.3	15.5	15.1
OKC	15.0	13.5	15.0	17.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Jeffries	10	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-20	23	15.6	15.0	0.60	19.9	14.6	5.29
Brad Miller	39	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-12	7	14.5	15.4	-0.89	14.9	15.2	-0.33
Jermaine Taylor	42	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	-11	5	15.2	15.0	0.23	15.7	14.6	1.07
Charles Hayes	25	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	-5	-7	15.0	15.1	-0.09	14.9	15.2	-0.29
Courtney Lee	41	40	-0.20	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	-8	-1	16.1	14.3	1.82	16.6	14.0	2.54
Ish Smith	49	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	-9	1	15.4	14.7	0.80	15.8	14.4	1.40
Kyle Lowry	46	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	-8	-1	14.7	15.4	-0.80	14.4	15.8	-1.40
Kevin Martin	54	56	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-9	1	14.3	16.1	-1.82	14.0	16.6	-2.54
Luis Scola	61	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-9	1	15.0	15.1	-0.04	14.5	16.2	-1.61
Jordan Hill	53	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.04	-13	-4	-9	15.7	14.3	1.35	15.5	14.7	0.80
Shane Battier	55	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-7	-3	14.7	15.5	-0.84	14.4	16.1	-1.68

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	61	61	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	2	13	14.2	16.7	-2.51	14.9	15.3	-0.41
James Harden	58	57	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	4	9	15.3	14.8	0.50	15.1	15.0	0.15
Nick Collison	34	34	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.03	10	7	3	15.0	15.1	-0.15	16.0	14.5	1.50
Eric Maynor	41	41	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.06	13	4	9	15.9	14.5	1.41	16.1	14.3	1.78
Russell Westbrook	75	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	10	-3	14.7	16.6	-1.95	14.5	16.9	-2.44
Thabo Sefolosha	59	59	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.00	9	8	1	14.6	15.9	-1.25	14.6	15.8	-1.15
DJ White	40	38	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.05	10	7	3	15.3	14.9	0.35	14.1	15.7	-1.60
Nenad Krstic	55	55	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	11	-5	15.8	14.2	1.57	16.2	13.5	2.66
Serge Ibaka	49	48	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	19	-21	15.0	15.2	-0.15	14.7	15.5	-0.80
Royal Ivey	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	15	-13	19.2	14.9	4.34	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Byron Mullens	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	15	-13	19.2	14.9	4.34	14.4	15.1	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 92, PHI 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
MIA 87, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.68,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
NOH 76, DET 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.78,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%