NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	102		Excitement	8.7 [151]		MVP	Caron Butler (DAL): +23.6%
Denver Nuggets	101		Comeback	2.8 [280]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -13.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.17	0.00	14	57%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.23,0.16,0.1	0.03	0.08	0.01	31	51%	0.20	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	90%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Terry	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.03	13	67%	0.17	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Shawn Marion	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.10	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Dominique Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	6	25%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.09	0.01	11	77%	0.24	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	15	52%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.07	-0.04	12	62%	0.09	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	43%	0.00	1	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.06,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	19	48%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	32.2	16.3	24.7	2.5	32.4	134.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +27.7%

DAL +4.6%

DAL +31.5%

DEN -26.5%

DAL +12.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.5	15.2	15.5	112.1	111.0	105.7
season	15.7	14.3		108.5	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.7		106.1	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.9	12.4	15.5	22.5	16.5
DEN	16.6	14.7	15.8	13.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	51	53	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.50	9	-8	17	16.5	16.4	0.12	17.2	12.3	4.96
Jason Terry	72	71	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.53	5	-4	9	16.3	17.4	-1.10	15.0	15.7	-0.70
Caron Butler	64	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.57	-2	3	-5	16.7	16.0	0.70	15.8	13.6	2.27
Jason Kidd	68	70	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	-1	3	17.1	14.8	2.29	16.3	11.4	4.90
Dirk Nowitzki	70	72	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-7	15	16.3	17.0	-0.72	15.8	12.6	3.25
Shawn Marion	48	46	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.34	-4	5	-9	16.5	16.5	-0.08	13.2	17.2	-4.05
Dominique Jones	6	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	2	-3	19.2	16.3	2.86	19.2	14.9	4.30
Jose Juan Barea	36	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	5	-9	15.4	17.2	-1.78	12.5	16.8	-4.29
Brian Cardinal	7	7	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	5	-9	11.4	16.9	-5.49	11.4	15.5	-4.04
Brendan Haywood	33	31	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	5	-9	17.5	15.9	1.55	12.5	16.5	-4.10

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	33	35	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.10	6	-7	13	12.1	16.9	-4.76	17.7	15.7	1.94
Shelden Williams	41	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	0	-1	16.5	14.0	2.52	14.6	18.0	-3.39
Gary Forbes	45	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	2	-5	16.8	13.5	3.30	15.0	18.0	-3.00
Ty Lawson	57	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.47	5	-6	11	13.0	18.7	-5.67	16.8	15.9	0.88
Al Harrington	62	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.41	2	-3	5	13.6	18.6	-4.99	16.7	16.0	0.77
Arron Afflalo	76	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	0	-1	16.2	9.7	6.49	16.8	15.2	1.55
Carmelo Anthony	77	77	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.45	-5	4	-9	15.7	12.2	3.47	17.2	12.4	4.89
Chauncey Billups	64	63	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.57	-8	7	-15	16.2	12.7	3.43	16.3	16.9	-0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.69,0.55,0.44,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 106, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.64,0.33,0.15,0	91.2%
CHA 105, NJN 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.55,0.16,0	91.0%
SAS 108, PHX 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.36,0.46,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.16,0.02,0	90.8%