NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	6.1 [606]		MVP	Taj Gibson (CHI): +15.5%
Chicago Bulls	101		Comeback	28.4 [124]		LVP	Charlie Villanueva (DET): -23.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06	0.04	-0.02	-0.04	10	70%	0.14	5	-0.08	10	100%	0.04
Rodney Stuckey	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	13	49%	0.03	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.03
Greg Monroe	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Austin Daye	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	4	40%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	10	23%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	17	42%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.06,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.02	-0.21	0.00	15	44%	-0.16	1	-0.07	4	50%	-0.11

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.01	8	61%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.07	0.00	5	57%	0.13	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	12	54%	0.12	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	27%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	10	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.03	-0.12	0.05	27	58%	0.07	7	-0.20	13	77%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	2.4	33.4	15.7	29.8	1.8	38.2	150.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +34.6%

CHI +18.3%

CHI +1.1%

DET -3.6%

DET -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	16.7	11.9	15.5	91.0	100.0	105.7
season	16.7	15.7		106.4	106.5
opponent	15.9	15.2		99.2	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.4	15.9	18.7	16.0	16.7
CHI	13.0	14.1	10.1	10.7	11.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	35	37	0.30	-0.80	1.11	-0.05	12	-22	34	16.1	17.1	-0.96	12.4	11.7	0.65
Greg Monroe	15	15	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.08	11	-21	32	15.9	16.9	-0.95	13.5	11.7	1.87
Ben Gordon	60	61	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.07	5	-15	20	15.8	18.1	-2.31	11.7	12.3	-0.55
Austin Daye	34	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-7	4	17.5	16.4	1.11	13.0	11.4	1.62
Jason Maxiell	30	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.22	-10	0	-10	17.9	16.2	1.70	10.9	12.4	-1.54
Charlie Villanueva	57	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-9	8	17.6	15.6	1.99	11.9	12.0	-0.06
Tayshaun Prince	86	87	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	1	-12	16.7	17.1	-0.39	12.2	10.5	1.67
Ben Wallace	55	54	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.30	-14	4	-18	16.3	17.3	-0.96	12.3	11.5	0.84
Rodney Stuckey	79	79	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.19	-18	8	-26	17.1	15.5	1.60	11.3	14.1	-2.75
Richard Hamilton	49	48	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.26	-21	11	-32	16.4	17.1	-0.73	11.5	12.4	-0.88

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	41	40	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.21	24	-14	38	11.4	12.3	-0.84	16.1	17.2	-1.07
Kyle Korver	45	46	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.26	16	-6	22	11.4	12.4	-0.93	17.0	16.5	0.56
Derrick Rose	80	80	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.22	15	-5	20	11.4	14.0	-2.60	16.9	16.0	0.93
Taj Gibson	34	38	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.52	0	10	-10	14.3	10.7	3.55	16.1	17.1	-1.02
Joakim Noah	85	84	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	-2	14	11.5	14.1	-2.60	16.6	17.5	-0.90
Omer Asik	32	31	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.07	12	-2	14	11.3	12.2	-0.92	17.3	16.5	0.84
Brian Scalabrine	46	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.18	5	5	0	10.8	12.9	-2.01	17.8	16.0	1.80
CJ Watson	21	20	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	15	-20	14.0	11.4	2.60	16.0	16.9	-0.93
Keith Bogans	49	48	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.08	-3	13	-16	12.3	11.6	0.79	16.6	16.9	-0.30
Kurt Thomas	5	6	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.06	-9	19	-28	17.0	11.7	5.32	12.5	17.0	-4.51
Luol Deng	54	54	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.09	-4	14	-18	11.6	12.4	-0.79	17.4	16.0	1.41
Ronnie Brewer	13	12	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.12	-13	23	-36	15.3	11.4	3.86	15.4	16.9	-1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.17,0.2,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.84,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 101, NYK 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.64,0.43,0.95,1	91.2%
TOR 103, GSW 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.2,0.13,0.25,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	90.3%
DET 99, ATL 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.46,0.55,0.85,1	89.8%