NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	99		Excitement	6.2 [577]		MVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): +28.8%
Atlanta Hawks	106		Comeback	19.6 [60]		LVP	Clifford Robinson (DET): -23.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25	0.17	0.08	0.01	11	86%	0.27	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Corliss Williamson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	10	70%	0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	7	59%	0.05	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.11	-0.01	10	60%	0.01	3	-0.13	5	20%	-0.14
Dana Barros	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.15	-0.00	9	42%	-0.02	3	-0.20	1	0%	-0.01
Clifford Robinson	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	17	36%	-0.21	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.31,0.29	0.29	0.27	0.08	0.06	30	74%	0.34	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.09
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	-0.00	0.11	-0.02	9	68%	0.19	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.07
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.02	8	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	14	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	4	64%	0.05	4	-0.09	3	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.7	27.2	15.8	25.8	1.8	29.3	124.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +13.8%

ATL +36.6%

DET -11.3%

ATL +17.8%

DET -6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	17.5	14.7	15.6	110.0	119.1	102.3
season	15.7	15.5		101.9	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		103.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.8	19.6	16.8	18.3	17.5
ATL	13.6	16.4	15.2	13.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	25	24	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.14	0	-7	7	18.6	17.1	1.56	15.2	14.5	0.71
Zeljko Rebraca	35	34	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.20	-6	-1	-5	18.0	17.2	0.85	14.5	14.7	-0.25
Corliss Williamson	41	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	-1	-5	18.0	17.1	0.99	14.9	14.4	0.46
Ben Wallace	67	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.36	2	-9	11	17.3	18.3	-1.01	14.6	14.9	-0.29
Clifford Robinson	75	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-4	1	17.6	17.1	0.45	15.1	12.6	2.47
Jon Barry	76	76	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	-1	-5	17.1	19.7	-2.61	14.4	15.8	-1.40
Michael Curry	65	64	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.36	-7	0	-7	17.8	16.8	0.98	14.6	14.9	-0.32
Dana Barros	66	66	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.38	-9	2	-11	16.8	19.3	-2.48	14.3	15.6	-1.29

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	44	44	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.28	19	-12	31	13.8	15.4	-1.60	17.2	17.8	-0.69
Cal Bowdler	33	34	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.31	18	-11	29	13.5	15.3	-1.76	17.8	17.4	0.41
Jason Terry	79	81	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.23	15	-8	23	14.5	16.0	-1.52	17.7	15.6	2.17
Toni Kukoc	49	50	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-5	17	14.5	14.8	-0.36	18.3	16.5	1.73
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	84	86	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-5	17	14.4	18.6	-4.18	17.7	14.5	3.15
Nazr Mohammed	37	38	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.05	-1	8	-9	15.1	14.3	0.83	17.3	17.7	-0.38
Emanual Davis	40	41	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.03	-10	17	-27	15.2	14.2	1.00	17.8	17.3	0.49
Hanno Mottola	24	22	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	0.07	-15	22	-37	16.2	14.1	2.19	17.0	17.7	-0.74
Dion Glover	55	54	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.04	-15	22	-37	15.3	13.6	1.67	16.6	18.9	-2.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.46,0.55,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 112, IND 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.38,0.64,0.85,0.9,1	92.6%
LAL 105, HOU 107	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.72,1	91.9%
SAC 97, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.31,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.25,0.23,0.1,0.05,0.17,0.25,0.28,0.43,0.74,1	91.5%