NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	97		Excitement	7.3 [329]		MVP	Tyrone Hill (MIL): +22.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	101		Comeback	21.0 [91]		LVP	Terrell Brandon (MIL): -15.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	17	53%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	10	60%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Billy Owens	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Terry Dehere	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	-0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.05,0.15,-0.14,-0.15	0.08	-0.20	0.03	21	64%	-0.01	3	-0.13	8	87%	-0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.22	0.22	0.03	0.19	0.00	10	61%	0.24	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	13	53%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.00	9	42%	0.01	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.07
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.01	27	44%	-0.03	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.07
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	42%	-0.05	2	-0.03	7	57%	-0.03
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16	-0.16	0.00	-0.15	0.01	18	55%	-0.05	2	-0.11	6	83%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	1.6	25.2	14.8	24.2	1.5	40.0	128.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +0.5%

MIL +26.6%

MIL +25.4%

SAC -1.1%

SAC -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIL	NBA	SAC	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.6	103.2	108.6	102.5
season	15.2	16.0		98.5	101.1
opponent	15.1	15.3		102.8	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.2	15.0	16.4	18.2	15.6
MIL	15.6	17.1	13.6	14.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	36	38	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.13	2	-6	8	15.4	15.8	-0.43	14.3	15.7	-1.40
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	33	33	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.02	2	-6	8	15.5	15.7	-0.27	14.1	15.8	-1.72
Terry Dehere	31	34	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-4	4	15.7	15.6	0.12	13.6	16.1	-2.40
Michael Smith	36	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	0	-4	17.4	14.5	2.94	13.4	16.3	-2.93
Corliss Williamson	76	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-2	0	15.7	15.2	0.50	15.8	12.6	3.19
Michael Stewart	50	48	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	3	-10	16.0	15.2	0.75	15.6	14.7	0.85
Anthony Johnson	63	59	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	0	-4	15.6	15.7	-0.12	16.1	13.6	2.40
Mitch Richmond	79	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.47	-2	-2	0	14.8	19.9	-5.12	15.3	14.5	0.76
Billy Owens	66	64	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.48	-5	1	-6	15.5	16.0	-0.53	16.0	13.2	2.81

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Hill	86	85	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-4	12	15.2	15.0	0.19	15.4	17.3	-1.89
Armen Gilliam	39	40	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.38	7	-3	10	15.4	15.0	0.41	17.2	14.4	2.82
Glenn Robinson	83	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-2	8	15.3	13.8	1.54	15.5	16.5	-1.00
Ray Allen	83	85	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.44	3	1	2	15.0	16.5	-1.49	15.6	16.1	-0.53
Terrell Brandon	81	83	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	-3	10	15.0	16.6	-1.62	15.2	18.9	-3.72
Michael Curry	24	24	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.28	-5	9	-14	15.5	15.1	0.44	14.4	16.0	-1.63
Elliot Perry	20	21	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	6	-8	15.9	15.0	0.93	17.0	15.2	1.77
Ervin Johnson	49	50	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.06	-4	8	-12	14.8	15.5	-0.71	15.7	15.6	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.31,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.25,0.23,0.1,0.05,0.17,0.25,0.28,0.43,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 91, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.57,0.84,1	92.4%
VAN 110, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.43,0.59,1	92.2%
POR 105, BOS 111	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.26,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.25,0.45,0.33,0.58,1	91.7%