NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	4.9 [826]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +11.1%
Denver Nuggets	85		Comeback	1.4 [323]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -15.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.04	-0.04	10	58%	0.13	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.03
Richard Jefferson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	8	58%	0.05	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	64%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	13	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.05
Malik Hairston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	83%	0.00	1	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.07	5	79%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	9	55%	0.01	3	-0.03	4	50%	-0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.04	12	44%	0.01	5	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	18	57%	0.09	3	-0.07	11	91%	0.03
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	18	50%	0.06	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	0.05	12	50%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	6	21%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	4.0	27.2	15.7	29.7	2.7	39.5	142.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +14.1%

SAS +4.2%

SAS +21.7%

SAS +6.7%

SAS +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.9	13.0	15.3	107.2	88.5	106.0
season	15.9	14.4		108.2	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.1		106.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.7	17.2	19.0	14.4	16.9
DEN	14.2	12.3	15.3	10.8	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	59	58	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.11	23	-4	27	16.5	17.4	-0.91	13.1	12.7	0.37
Garrett Temple	43	43	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	6	7	16.4	17.2	-0.76	11.4	14.2	-2.75
Richard Jefferson	63	63	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.15	15	4	11	17.4	15.8	1.61	13.6	11.7	1.92
Tim Duncan	54	54	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.08	7	12	-5	18.2	15.2	3.02	14.1	11.5	2.51
Antonio McDyess	49	50	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	11	-3	18.0	15.7	2.29	13.8	12.0	1.84
DeJuan Blair	43	42	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.13	12	7	5	15.2	18.2	-3.02	11.5	14.1	-2.51
Tony Parker	62	60	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.01	7	12	-5	16.8	17.0	-0.25	13.3	12.3	1.04
Matt Bonner	31	31	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	12	-5	16.5	17.0	-0.56	12.9	13.0	-0.08
Keith Bogans	25	24	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	18	-17	18.3	16.4	1.90	15.0	12.3	2.67
Roger Mason Jr.	31	32	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.09	6	13	-7	16.1	17.2	-1.08	12.3	13.3	-0.92
Malik Hairston	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	22	-25	15.4	17.1	-1.71	9.3	13.5	-4.14
Ian Mahinmi	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	14.6	17.2	-2.60	9.7	13.4	-3.65

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	33	35	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.15	11	-30	41	13.1	12.9	0.25	18.5	16.0	2.49
Renaldo Balkman	11	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	9.7	13.4	-3.65	14.6	17.2	-2.60
Ty Lawson	14	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	9.6	13.5	-3.97	15.3	17.1	-1.85
Anthony Carter	21	21	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.10	-9	-10	1	12.3	13.1	-0.86	15.0	17.4	-2.32
Chris Andersen	34	33	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	-11	3	12.8	13.1	-0.30	16.5	17.0	-0.53
J.R. Smith	52	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-10	1	12.4	13.6	-1.21	16.3	17.5	-1.20
Arron Afflalo	69	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.12	-15	-4	-11	12.4	14.4	-1.96	16.9	16.7	0.20
Carmelo Anthony	64	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	-9	-1	14.3	10.3	3.97	17.4	15.7	1.64
Kenyon Martin	46	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	-3	-13	13.3	12.7	0.58	16.7	17.0	-0.33
Chauncey Billups	72	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.13	-20	1	-21	13.5	11.4	2.06	17.3	15.5	1.87
Nene	64	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.13	-21	2	-23	13.4	12.0	1.39	17.0	16.6	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 120, SAS 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.3,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0	95.0%
ATL 87, VAN 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	94.9%
UTA 96, BOS 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.28,0.15,0.34,0.26,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%