NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	110		Excitement	3.8 [1028]		MVP	Ronald Murray (CHI): +12.0%
Detroit Pistons	103		Comeback	1.4 [520]		LVP	Jannero Pargo (CHI): -5.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	14	72%	0.14	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	6	87%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brad Miller	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.03	-0.01	8	68%	0.14	2	-0.05	9	78%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	13	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	60%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	5	64%	0.04	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Jannero Pargo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.02	0.04	8	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	14	56%	0.05	2	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	27%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.10	-0.05	0.10	20	62%	0.01	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.02
DaJuan Summers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	0.07	4	70%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.0	31.7	16.8	31.0	2.8	40.2	152.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +44.9%

CHI +0.1%

CHI +3.2%

DET -3.1%

CHI +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	15.7	16.1	15.3	122.2	113.2	106.0
season	14.7	16.8		101.9	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.7		109.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.6	16.6	16.5	14.6	15.7
DET	15.1	19.4	17.8	13.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	55	55	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-4	15	15.7	15.9	-0.20	18.2	12.9	5.29
Taj Gibson	81	80	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	4	-1	15.8	15.1	0.69	16.0	16.8	-0.83
Ronald Murray	57	58	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.29	3	4	-1	15.8	15.6	0.25	15.6	17.0	-1.43
Hakim Warrick	30	33	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	-6	19	16.5	15.3	1.15	17.3	15.4	1.86
Kirk Hinrich	56	55	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	3	1	15.1	16.7	-1.56	15.6	16.8	-1.23
Derrick Rose	69	68	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.27	0	7	-7	15.7	15.9	-0.22	15.6	17.4	-1.80
Jannero Pargo	22	24	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	-1	9	15.2	15.9	-0.67	17.0	15.8	1.18
Joakim Noah	34	35	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.24	-5	12	-17	16.3	15.4	0.90	13.1	18.0	-4.88
James Johnson	46	47	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	9	-11	15.7	15.7	-0.03	16.6	15.5	1.14

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	60	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.28	7	-14	21	14.8	18.6	-3.78	15.4	16.5	-1.10
Charlie Villanueva	8	8	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-2	-3	22.6	15.5	7.17	13.5	16.0	-2.45
DaJuan Summers	13	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-5	3	12.3	16.7	-4.41	11.5	16.5	-4.99
Tayshaun Prince	63	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-8	9	15.1	18.2	-3.12	15.1	17.1	-1.97
Austin Daye	26	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-6	5	15.6	16.3	-0.66	15.0	16.0	-1.03
Will Bynum	49	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-8	9	14.9	17.4	-2.49	14.6	17.1	-2.55
Jonas Jerebko	70	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-7	7	16.0	16.2	-0.20	16.8	12.2	4.56
Ben Gordon	25	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	3	-13	18.0	15.4	2.58	15.5	15.8	-0.35
Richard Hamilton	63	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-5	3	16.6	14.9	1.73	16.8	13.4	3.42
Rodney Stuckey	47	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	3	-13	17.1	15.0	2.15	16.9	14.6	2.31
Kwame Brown	31	31	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.01	-14	7	-21	18.6	14.8	3.78	16.5	15.4	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 120, CHI 112	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.5%
HOU 104, LAC 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.24,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.5%
BOS 101, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.5%