NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	96		Excitement	5.6 [680]		MVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): +22.2%
Dallas Mavericks	106		Comeback	1.7 [952]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (LAC): -12.5%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.00	0.05	-0.06	21	50%	0.12	2	-0.02	10	100%	0.06
Chris Kaman	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	17	61%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.03
Craig Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.03	0.01	13	39%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	12	47%	0.00	3	-0.08	10	60%	-0.04
DeAndre Jordan	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Travis Outlaw	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	7	21%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.07	-0.04	21	62%	0.26	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.02	0.02	11	78%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.01	5	80%	0.15	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.07	0.02	6	62%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	13	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	12	52%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	9	22%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.0	27.0	16.4	30.3	2.6	40.2	144.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +45.6%

LAC -4.6%

LAC -7.1%

DAL +12.6%

DAL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	DAL	NBA	LAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.4	16.8	15.3	103.2	115.2	106.0
season	15.5	15.2		101.9	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.2		104.6	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	13.5	14.1	14.2	15.8	14.4
DAL	16.5	16.6	19.4	14.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Gordon	75	74	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.12	7	-17	24	13.8	17.0	-3.24	17.3	14.4	2.88
Drew Gooden	74	74	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.32	12	-22	34	14.0	15.9	-1.89	17.9	11.9	5.99
Craig Smith	7	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-10	10	15.3	14.3	0.97	21.1	16.4	4.74
Baron Davis	70	69	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.18	2	-12	14	13.8	16.3	-2.49	16.6	17.3	-0.72
Chris Kaman	75	73	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-11	12	13.7	17.4	-3.72	16.1	19.2	-3.02
Rasual Butler	75	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-12	14	14.1	15.8	-1.72	16.9	16.0	0.95
DeAndre Jordan	19	20	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.01	-19	9	-28	16.8	13.8	3.09	15.4	17.1	-1.74
Steve Blake	33	33	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	0.05	-26	16	-42	17.0	12.9	4.10	15.8	17.3	-1.52
Travis Outlaw	37	36	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	0.04	-29	19	-48	15.9	13.4	2.59	15.2	17.7	-2.53

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	58	57	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.19	23	-13	36	15.7	18.6	-2.90	15.8	12.2	3.53
Jason Terry	62	64	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.04	23	-13	36	16.3	17.7	-1.34	14.2	14.7	-0.44
Rodrigue Beaubois	28	28	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.22	14	-4	18	15.5	17.3	-1.81	16.0	13.7	2.26
Caron Butler	62	62	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	4	2	16.5	17.3	-0.75	14.8	13.6	1.16
Jason Kidd	79	80	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	6	-2	16.9	16.0	0.89	14.3	15.0	-0.71
Jose Juan Barea	18	18	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	9	-8	16.3	16.9	-0.53	15.1	14.2	0.90
Dirk Nowitzki	37	39	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	11	-12	16.5	16.9	-0.46	13.6	15.0	-1.37
Eduardo Najera	25	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.16	3	7	-4	17.6	16.5	1.10	13.6	14.7	-1.08
Shawn Marion	51	53	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	14	-18	18.2	15.0	3.26	13.6	15.4	-1.73
DeShawn Stevenson	6	5	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	16	-22	15.3	16.9	-1.53	16.6	14.3	2.34
Erick Dampier	34	35	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	0.05	-13	23	-36	18.6	15.7	2.90	12.6	15.5	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.8,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.66,0.7,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 81, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	93.6%
DEN 96, PHX 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.1%
NOP 98, DET 118	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.26,0.34,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.69,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.3%