NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	3.1 [1147]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +14.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	84		Comeback	1.2 [440]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (PHI): -8.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.01	16	70%	0.17	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	8	70%	0.10	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	15	53%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	9	59%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	4	44%	0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	0.01
James Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Richard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	10	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	41%	-0.00	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.04	8	80%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	6	53%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	8	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	14	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	43%	-0.00	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	11	34%	-0.06	1	-0.02	10	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.4	31.8	16.0	29.3	2.3	29.6	134.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +34.0%

CHI +6.5%

CHI +0.5%

CHI +7.4%

CHI +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	PHI	NBA	CHI	PHI	NBA
this game	15.1	14.9	15.3	102.1	87.5	106.0
season	14.7	15.1		101.9	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.7		108.4	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.3	15.2	14.0	15.0	15.1
PHI	15.7	13.6	16.7	13.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	85	86	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	2	10	14.8	17.5	-2.68	15.0	14.4	0.58
Brad Miller	61	62	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.10	19	-5	24	14.9	15.4	-0.45	15.4	14.1	1.24
Derrick Rose	71	73	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.12	18	-4	22	15.5	13.8	1.79	15.5	13.1	2.41
Taj Gibson	59	60	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.01	11	3	8	15.6	14.3	1.28	15.5	14.0	1.51
Ronald Murray	52	50	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.01	9	5	4	14.7	15.5	-0.81	14.2	15.7	-1.41
James Johnson	48	50	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	6	2	15.6	14.6	0.96	15.5	14.2	1.30
Hakim Warrick	41	40	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	14	-14	14.9	15.3	-0.40	14.3	15.4	-1.10
Jannero Pargo	24	22	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	16	-18	14.5	15.3	-0.72	13.8	15.3	-1.48
Chris Richard	11	10	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	15	-16	14.9	15.1	-0.20	14.1	15.0	-0.91
Joakim Noah	20	20	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	15	-16	14.7	15.2	-0.48	13.5	15.3	-1.73
Acie Law	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	17	-20	15.4	15.1	0.32	12.1	15.1	-2.99

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	34	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.13	3	-17	20	13.8	15.5	-1.74	15.0	15.1	-0.13
Jason Smith	46	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-14	14	14.3	15.5	-1.26	14.8	15.4	-0.62
Lou Williams	24	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	-6	-2	13.6	15.3	-1.72	14.7	15.2	-0.55
Marreese Speights	60	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-13	12	14.1	16.2	-2.13	15.5	14.5	1.02
Willie Green	39	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-10	6	17.3	13.3	3.94	14.3	15.6	-1.27
Jodie Meeks	28	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-9	4	14.7	15.0	-0.24	14.1	15.5	-1.45
Rodney Carney	48	48	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-3	-8	13.2	16.6	-3.33	15.3	14.9	0.37
Andre Iguodala	50	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-3	-8	16.0	13.7	2.26	15.6	14.6	1.00
Elton Brand	33	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.04	-12	-2	-10	16.5	14.1	2.48	14.6	15.4	-0.81
Jrue Holiday	72	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	-4	-6	14.9	14.9	0.06	15.6	13.5	2.17
Samuel Dalembert	46	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-3	-8	15.6	14.3	1.33	15.3	14.9	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.11,0.14,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
SAS 120, SEA 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
MIA 118, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%