NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	3.9 [996]		MVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): +8.1%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	1.2 [266]		LVP	Sean Elliott (SAS): -11.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.00	-0.04	15	57%	0.08	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Stephon Marbury	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	14	54%	0.05	0	0.00	7	86%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	20	51%	0.04	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.01
Terry Porter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	-0.00	-0.07	10	38%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Doug West	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	5	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Stanley Roberts	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	0.00	0.01	11	50%	-0.03	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	8	58%	0.03	1	-0.01	10	50%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Carl Herrera	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.01	-0.07	20	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	18	72%	0.02
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	0.00	0.08	3	91%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	6	39%	-0.03	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	13	21%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	0.02	13	40%	-0.09	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	29.4	15.7	32.6	1.7	33.3	137.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +19.6%

MIN +10.8%

MIN +7.8%

MIN +10.5%

MIN +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.0	13.3	15.6	101.9	94.0	102.5
season	14.8	15.9		105.3	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.7		97.2	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.2	13.6	13.2	19.8	15.0
SAS	15.9	13.6	13.5	10.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	83	81	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-6	23	14.3	18.0	-3.66	13.5	12.4	1.15
Stephon Marbury	82	77	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	6	-1	15.6	13.0	2.57	12.6	15.8	-3.22
Tom Gugliotta	80	76	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	4	3	16.4	10.4	5.94	12.6	15.5	-2.95
Sam Mitchell	61	60	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	11	-11	14.3	16.1	-1.73	12.9	13.8	-0.87
Doug West	52	53	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.07	8	3	5	14.4	15.7	-1.34	13.8	12.8	1.01
Chris Carr	61	57	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	9	-7	15.5	14.4	1.17	13.1	13.6	-0.53
Cherokee Parks	35	34	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	8	-5	14.1	15.5	-1.42	13.6	13.2	0.44
Terry Porter	21	23	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	5	1	13.0	15.6	-2.57	15.8	12.6	3.22
Stanley Roberts	40	39	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.09	7	4	3	15.9	14.5	1.39	14.2	12.7	1.48

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Geary	9	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-9	7	16.0	13.0	2.97	10.5	15.5	-5.04
Jaren Jackson	39	39	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.33	9	-20	29	12.6	13.8	-1.21	14.5	15.4	-0.94
Carl Herrera	9	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-7	3	16.7	13.0	3.70	7.6	15.7	-8.05
Malik Rose	13	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-6	1	14.3	13.1	1.16	14.1	15.2	-1.15
Will Perdue	21	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-9	7	12.6	13.5	-0.86	14.5	15.2	-0.72
Monty Williams	47	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-4	-3	12.6	13.9	-1.29	15.6	14.5	1.08
Tim Duncan	83	86	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-9	7	12.6	16.5	-3.89	15.8	11.3	4.50
Chuck Person	51	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.03	-11	0	-11	14.1	12.5	1.59	15.4	14.7	0.64
David Robinson	74	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-2	-7	13.6	12.3	1.34	15.3	14.2	1.12
Sean Elliott	63	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	2	-15	13.6	12.7	0.91	14.7	15.6	-0.89
Avery Johnson	91	93	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	13.0	16.0	-2.97	15.5	10.5	5.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 106, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
CHI 98, PHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.11,0.14,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
TOR 106, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%