NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	122		Excitement	5.4 [714]		MVP	Rodrigue Beaubois (DAL): +22.5%
Chicago Bulls	116		Comeback	1.5 [619]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -7.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodrigue Beaubois	0.22	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22	0.15	0.07	-0.01	17	65%	0.22	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Caron Butler	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.05	0.00	17	67%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.03	-0.01	12	75%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	6	79%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	4	70%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.01	22	54%	0.12	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	6	50%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.19	0.02	0.05	22	71%	0.20	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	9	78%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	11	71%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	11	38%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	8	32%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.8	27.2	15.7	25.2	2.5	31.5	125.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +56.5%

CHI -0.7%

CHI -9.0%

DAL +5.7%

CHI -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHI	NBA	DAL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.4	14.4	15.3	129.8	124.7	106.0
season	15.2	14.7		107.2	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.5		103.9	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.3	16.8	15.7	18.8	16.4
CHI	15.6	13.0	16.3	12.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	77	76	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.23	19	-13	32	15.6	20.0	-4.38	14.7	12.9	1.76
Shawn Marion	76	74	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.21	14	-8	22	15.7	19.2	-3.47	14.7	13.2	1.53
Caron Butler	76	76	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-4	14	16.0	18.2	-2.24	14.5	13.9	0.60
Eduardo Najera	36	36	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.04	8	-2	10	18.0	15.4	2.52	15.1	13.9	1.11
Jose Juan Barea	36	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	3	0	18.5	15.1	3.38	14.2	14.5	-0.21
Rodrigue Beaubois	71	70	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.33	-5	11	-16	16.1	17.3	-1.12	14.1	15.2	-1.12
Dirk Nowitzki	76	76	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.39	-10	16	-26	16.3	16.7	-0.38	13.7	17.2	-3.43
DeShawn Stevenson	22	21	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.06	-9	15	-24	18.1	15.9	2.25	14.0	14.5	-0.55

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Richard	9	10	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-6	6	13.8	14.4	-0.66	20.3	16.0	4.35
James Johnson	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	15.3	14.3	0.98	21.4	16.0	5.42
Brad Miller	57	58	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.30	7	-13	20	14.2	14.7	-0.47	15.1	18.6	-3.47
Ronald Murray	28	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-3	0	14.9	14.1	0.79	18.2	15.6	2.61
Jannero Pargo	27	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.25	4	-10	14	13.4	14.8	-1.42	17.5	15.9	1.60
Derrick Rose	84	85	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-8	10	14.1	17.3	-3.27	16.4	16.3	0.09
Taj Gibson	61	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	1	-8	15.1	13.0	2.05	16.1	17.0	-0.93
Luol Deng	72	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	1	-8	14.2	15.1	-0.99	16.1	17.6	-1.55
Hakim Warrick	46	47	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.04	-15	9	-24	14.6	14.2	0.42	16.8	16.0	0.74
Kirk Hinrich	74	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	5	-16	14.5	13.8	0.74	15.7	19.2	-3.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.13,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 96, WAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	95.1%
BOS 100, GSW 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.03,0.01,0	94.8%
CLE 117, GSW 114	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.23,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	94.2%