NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	114		Excitement	4.6 [883]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +12.5%
Denver Nuggets	122		Comeback	1.1 [1249]		LVP	T.J. Ford (IND): -8.4%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.11	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.15	-0.00	0.04	21	64%	0.14	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.05
Troy Murphy	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	58%	0.04	1	0.00	10	70%	-0.03
Josh McRoberts	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.06	6	83%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.01	0.05	9	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
A.J. Price	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	5	44%	-0.00	2	-0.00	6	83%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	8	48%	0.05	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	7	67%	0.06	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	5	36%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	8	41%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.19	0.01	0.07	20	68%	0.20	3	-0.07	10	90%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.01	-0.04	15	57%	0.14	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	67%	0.07	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.03	6	87%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	65%	0.05	2	-0.04	10	70%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	37%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	13	41%	0.00	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.5	30.5	15.7	33.3	2.4	33.4	146.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.5%

DEN +5.3%

DEN +4.9%

DEN +0.9%

DEN +11.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	12.9	13.8	15.3	106.5	111.9	106.0
season	14.2	14.4		102.2	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.1		106.4	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	12.0	15.0	13.8	11.1	12.9
DEN	12.8	15.0	13.4	14.1	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.J. Price	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.33	11	-19	30	9.8	13.7	-3.91	15.5	13.3	2.21
Josh McRoberts	51	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-13	18	12.5	13.2	-0.67	14.1	13.5	0.60
Mike Dunleavy	25	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-5	2	14.2	12.5	1.67	13.1	14.0	-0.91
Troy Murphy	72	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.28	2	-10	12	13.1	12.4	0.71	13.9	13.5	0.36
Danny Granger	77	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-5	2	13.7	10.7	2.98	13.7	13.9	-0.18
Earl Watson	49	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	3	-14	14.5	11.5	2.93	13.2	14.3	-1.13
Roy Hibbert	63	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-3	-2	12.2	13.9	-1.67	14.1	13.3	0.77
T.J. Ford	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	0	-8	13.1	12.6	0.48	13.4	14.1	-0.69
Brandon Rush	71	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.03	-14	6	-20	12.3	14.0	-1.65	13.5	14.5	-1.05
Dahntay Jones	49	50	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.04	-14	6	-20	12.2	13.5	-1.32	14.0	13.6	0.41

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	57	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	-1	10	13.2	14.4	-1.19	13.4	12.4	1.00
Carmelo Anthony	79	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	-7	22	13.7	13.9	-0.21	12.4	14.1	-1.65
Arron Afflalo	59	60	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.12	18	-10	28	13.0	14.7	-1.77	13.1	12.6	0.54
J.R. Smith	73	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	5	-2	13.7	14.0	-0.37	13.3	12.1	1.16
Chris Andersen	59	59	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	-1	10	13.1	14.6	-1.48	14.5	10.8	3.71
Chauncey Billups	82	80	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	3	2	13.8	13.9	-0.10	13.6	10.7	2.96
Joey Graham	53	51	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.19	-2	10	-12	14.7	12.9	1.86	11.0	14.6	-3.66
Nene	65	64	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	7	-6	14.4	12.8	1.65	12.8	13.0	-0.13
Malik Allen	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	17	-26	16.1	13.6	2.54	7.9	13.3	-5.45
Johan Petro	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	17	-26	16.1	13.6	2.54	7.9	13.3	-5.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, HOU 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.64,0.78,0.79,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1	95.5%
PHX 80, UTA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	95.5%
PHI 88, LAL 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.85,0.8,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%