NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	4.7 [866]		MVP	Vince Carter (ORL): +16.1%
Orlando Magic	96		Comeback	1.3 [1247]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -11.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.04	-0.05	17	47%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.13	-0.03	0.08	8	88%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	53%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	41%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	0.00	7	36%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	37%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	11%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	17	46%	0.00	5	-0.10	12	75%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	-0.01	10	81%	0.18	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.01	7	71%	0.13	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.03	14	69%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	55%	0.02	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	0.01	7	32%	-0.10	2	-0.02	8	62%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.4	35.4	18.7	27.5	1.8	27.4	144.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +34.7%

ORL +4.4%

MIA -6.9%

ORL +18.3%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	17.4	16.9	15.3	95.2	114.3	106.0
season	16.2	15.4		104.4	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		101.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	16.0	20.1	17.1	17.4
ORL	16.0	14.6	17.8	19.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	8	7	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-16	16	16.7	17.4	-0.68	17.3	16.9	0.40
Michael Beasley	31	31	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-16	16	18.3	16.8	1.46	16.7	17.0	-0.33
Rafer Alston	47	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-15	14	16.7	18.2	-1.51	17.1	16.7	0.38
Quentin Richardson	53	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-7	-2	17.3	17.5	-0.18	16.9	16.9	0.07
Dwyane Wade	67	66	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-12	8	16.9	19.2	-2.27	16.7	17.6	-0.88
Jermaine O'Neal	44	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	-9	2	17.1	17.7	-0.58	19.3	14.0	5.37
Joel Anthony	40	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	-7	-2	17.7	17.1	0.58	14.0	19.3	-5.37
Mario Chalmers	37	38	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.00	-15	-1	-14	18.2	16.7	1.51	16.7	17.1	-0.38
Udonis Haslem	53	53	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	0	-16	16.8	18.3	-1.46	17.0	16.7	0.33
Dorell Wright	40	42	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.03	-19	3	-22	18.3	16.5	1.87	17.1	16.7	0.40

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	44	43	0.64	-0.14	0.77	-0.01	22	-6	28	15.0	19.1	-4.12	17.3	17.5	-0.23
JJ Redick	41	42	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.13	21	-5	26	16.8	17.0	-0.22	17.7	17.0	0.69
Rashard Lewis	56	55	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	5	6	16.5	17.8	-1.36	18.6	15.0	3.57
Jason Williams	33	32	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.01	12	4	8	17.1	16.8	0.34	18.0	17.0	1.07
Vince Carter	48	47	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	12	-8	16.4	17.6	-1.26	17.6	17.1	0.56
Jameer Nelson	51	52	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	12	-8	16.8	17.1	-0.34	17.0	18.0	-1.07
Matt Barnes	46	45	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	12	-8	18.6	14.8	3.79	17.2	17.5	-0.32
Brandon Bass	28	29	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	11	-6	17.8	16.5	1.36	15.0	18.6	-3.57
Mickael Pietrus	33	34	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.03	3	13	-10	15.5	17.9	-2.41	16.8	17.8	-0.97
Dwight Howard	40	41	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	22	-28	19.1	15.0	4.12	17.5	17.3	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 95, LAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.75,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.82,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
TOR 72, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.76,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
MIL 117, CLE 124	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%