NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	4.7 [856]		MVP	Dahntay Jones (IND): +13.8%
Indiana Pacers	100		Comeback	1.5 [811]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -9.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	14	67%	0.12	2	-0.03	12	75%	-0.00
James Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	10	58%	0.06	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Ronald Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jannero Pargo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	16	40%	-0.00	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.15	-0.00	-0.05	14	38%	-0.01	5	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.03	-0.01	11	65%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.03	0.01	10	77%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.03	0.01	21	61%	0.16	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.02
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	80%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Rush	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.11	0.01	-0.06	7	53%	0.04	6	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	11	43%	0.01	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	25%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.0	32.2	15.7	25.1	2.3	34.7	138.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +37.1%

IND +7.5%

CHI -7.1%

IND +11.1%

IND +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	14.3	16.0	15.3	94.7	105.3	106.0
season	14.7	14.2		101.9	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.7		105.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.7	14.3	16.8	11.5	14.3
IND	12.5	17.0	16.7	18.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	15	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-5	0	11.7	14.8	-3.04	16.0	16.0	-0.03
Taj Gibson	60	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-9	8	15.5	12.1	3.41	15.7	16.6	-0.91
Hakim Warrick	33	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-7	4	14.2	14.4	-0.17	16.7	15.6	1.05
Kirk Hinrich	82	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-10	10	14.2	15.1	-0.91	16.5	13.3	3.27
Derrick Rose	73	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-6	2	14.3	14.2	0.09	16.3	15.1	1.10
Brad Miller	49	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	-11	1	-12	14.3	14.2	0.11	14.5	17.6	-3.08
Jannero Pargo	57	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-3	-4	13.5	15.5	-2.05	17.2	14.2	3.06
Luol Deng	68	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-3	-4	14.5	13.7	0.88	15.9	16.2	-0.27
Ronald Murray	38	38	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	2	-14	14.4	14.2	0.12	14.6	16.9	-2.32

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Hibbert	38	37	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.03	13	-3	16	15.5	16.4	-0.87	14.2	14.3	-0.13
T.J. Ford	83	80	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	5	0	16.2	14.8	1.36	14.3	14.5	-0.20
Earl Watson	68	69	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	3	4	16.1	15.9	0.24	13.9	15.4	-1.50
Brandon Rush	71	72	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.20	4	6	-2	16.3	15.2	1.09	13.7	16.0	-2.25
Dahntay Jones	38	38	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	3	4	16.8	15.5	1.24	14.8	13.9	0.87
Luther Head	36	37	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	2	6	15.1	16.6	-1.55	15.4	13.6	1.73
Troy Murphy	63	63	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.22	1	9	-8	15.6	16.8	-1.24	14.3	14.3	-0.03
Danny Granger	70	70	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	9	-8	16.4	15.0	1.39	14.2	14.5	-0.31
Mike Dunleavy	8	9	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	6	-2	14.6	16.1	-1.52	16.6	14.1	2.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.73,0.86,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 98, PHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.64,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.66,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
SAS 83, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
PHI 89, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%