NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	6.5 [477]		MVP	David West (NOH): +39.6%
New Orleans Hornets	100		Comeback	18.7 [38]		LVP	Darren Collison (NOH): -29.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.15	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.02	-0.02	18	62%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
JJ Redick	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	8	61%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.07	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	11	37%	0.03	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Mickael Pietrus	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	0.01	-0.13	0.01	14	66%	0.04	5	-0.17	1	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.08	-0.16	0.03	10	35%	-0.23	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.05

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.25	0.16	0.02	24	71%	0.43	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.11	-0.01	4	75%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.05	0.04	14	60%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.23,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.11	-0.16	0.02	18	40%	-0.08	4	-0.22	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	4.5	30.6	20.6	29.2	3.4	37.3	148.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +9.3%

NOH +13.1%

NOH +23.1%

NOH +10.2%

ORL -5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NOH	NBA	ORL	NOH	NBA
this game	15.2	16.3	15.3	102.2	108.7	106.0
season	15.4	15.5		110.1	106.0
opponent	15.2	15.9		108.3	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.0	14.0	16.5	15.4	15.2
NOH	15.7	17.9	14.2	17.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	10	10	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.03	6	-13	19	14.3	15.3	-1.02	14.8	16.4	-1.64
Mickael Pietrus	29	29	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.11	6	-13	19	14.4	15.6	-1.12	18.3	15.3	3.04
Jason Williams	26	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-9	11	15.2	15.2	-0.02	18.2	15.5	2.72
Matt Barnes	47	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.12	-7	0	-7	15.7	14.7	1.02	14.9	17.6	-2.71
Ryan Anderson	20	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-5	3	14.6	15.4	-0.72	18.3	15.7	2.59
Rashard Lewis	71	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-2	-3	15.4	14.6	0.72	15.7	18.3	-2.59
Vince Carter	59	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	2	-11	15.5	14.7	0.76	15.9	17.0	-1.09
Jameer Nelson	65	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	2	-11	15.2	15.2	0.02	15.5	18.2	-2.72
JJ Redick	47	48	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.44	-4	-3	-1	14.9	15.6	-0.74	16.8	15.7	1.07
Dwight Howard	81	82	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.26	-13	6	-19	15.3	14.3	1.02	16.4	14.8	1.64

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	47	46	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.29	14	-7	21	16.4	16.2	0.21	15.1	15.3	-0.20
James Posey	48	47	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-2	11	16.7	15.8	0.85	14.7	15.8	-1.14
David West	87	86	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	16.4	13.0	3.45	15.4	12.4	2.97
Darren Collison	87	86	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	16.4	13.0	3.45	15.4	12.4	2.97
Marcus Thornton	61	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	1	5	16.7	15.4	1.27	15.2	15.3	-0.12
Morris Peterson	36	36	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	9	-11	15.1	17.0	-1.93	14.9	15.4	-0.53
Emeka Okafor	41	41	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.03	-4	11	-15	16.0	16.5	-0.56	15.4	15.1	0.29
Peja Stojakovic	53	53	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.03	-8	15	-23	15.7	17.0	-1.24	15.4	14.9	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.4,0.64,0.84,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 105, GSW 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.75,0.92,1	91.4%
WAS 87, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.14,0.2,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.62,0.72,0.94,0.96,1	90.8%
MEM 92, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.89,0.97,0.99,1	90.7%