NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	87		Excitement	7.9 [240]		MVP	George Hill (SAS): +24.5%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	2.2 [580]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -13.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thabo Sefolosha	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.00	8	67%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Harden	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	2	40%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Jeff Green	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	16	54%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Byron Mullens	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	10	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.09,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.14,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12	-0.18	0.02	-0.04	21	33%	0.01	4	-0.13	9	56%	-0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	0.01	19	48%	-0.09	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.09	0.14	-0.02	12	62%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.17,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	18	59%	0.27	1	-0.09	8	87%	0.03
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	4	75%	0.16	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.01	6	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.00	11	63%	0.15	2	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.00	9	39%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	60%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	6	31%	-0.06	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.5	33.4	15.6	25.5	3.4	31.9	138.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +44.1%

SAS +11.0%

SAS +7.8%

OKC -17.6%

SAS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.0	16.2	15.3	93.5	103.3	106.0
season	15.0	15.9		106.2	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		103.4	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.6	16.3	15.1	15.2	15.0
SAS	13.6	14.3	17.6	20.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Maynor	36	34	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.06	2	-10	12	15.0	15.0	-0.03	15.3	16.6	-1.31
Byron Mullens	14	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-9	10	15.1	15.0	0.18	11.2	17.0	-5.82
James Harden	53	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	-2	-4	15.7	14.1	1.60	14.6	18.2	-3.62
Thabo Sefolosha	79	79	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-7	6	14.8	15.9	-1.11	16.5	13.8	2.78
Russell Westbrook	74	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-5	2	14.7	16.0	-1.27	17.1	12.6	4.50
Jeff Green	75	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	1	-10	15.4	13.1	2.33	16.6	14.0	2.61
Nenad Krstic	56	56	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.31	-11	3	-14	14.2	16.1	-1.90	17.2	14.6	2.62
Kevin Durant	78	77	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.35	-13	5	-18	15.0	14.8	0.23	15.9	17.2	-1.25

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	59	60	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-6	20	16.6	15.3	1.37	15.3	14.4	0.92
Manu Ginobili	63	66	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.28	9	-1	10	15.8	16.9	-1.09	14.9	15.3	-0.38
Keith Bogans	47	46	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	-1	10	16.4	15.8	0.60	14.3	15.7	-1.40
Richard Jefferson	57	58	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.30	2	6	-4	17.1	14.5	2.60	15.5	14.1	1.45
George Hill	62	64	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	3	2	17.2	13.9	3.34	14.8	15.5	-0.72
Roger Mason Jr.	9	9	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	-1	10	14.7	16.3	-1.65	16.4	14.8	1.61
Tony Parker	54	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	6	-4	14.6	18.3	-3.69	15.2	14.7	0.50
Antonio McDyess	34	34	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	5	-2	16.1	16.2	-0.10	14.1	15.5	-1.33
Matt Bonner	3	3	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	10	-12	8.7	16.4	-7.74	12.0	15.1	-3.09
DeJuan Blair	33	33	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.02	-6	14	-20	15.3	16.6	-1.37	14.4	15.3	-0.92
Michael Finley	39	40	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.04	-5	13	-18	16.3	16.1	0.18	15.9	14.3	1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.57,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 82, NJN 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.85,0.98,1	91.9%
UTA 87, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.98,1	91.6%
SAS 92, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.63,0.84,0.91,1	91.5%