NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	82		Excitement	8.2 [219]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +6.3%
New Jersey Nets	89		Comeback	1.8 [846]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIL): -27.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	11	36%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Desmond Mason	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	58%	0.05	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.06
Toni Kukoc	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	11	60%	0.07	2	-0.08	8	75%	-0.02
Ervin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Anthony Mason	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	4	30%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.24	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.10	-0.15	-0.01	17	43%	-0.02	4	-0.22	3	100%	0.03
Gary Payton	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27	-0.11	-0.18	-0.01	20	36%	-0.24	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	16	44%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Jason Collins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	3	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.09
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	8	44%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	14	55%	-0.03	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	11	35%	-0.10	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	4	20%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	16	44%	-0.05	3	-0.12	11	73%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.8	1.8	31.3	16.7	28.7	2.7	38.4	149.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +14.2%

NJN +0.1%

NJN +25.0%

NJN +2.1%

NJN +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NJN	NBA	MIL	NJN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.3	15.5	87.2	94.7	101.6
season	15.4	15.0		106.3	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.8		96.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	16.4	15.7	17.7	16.3
NJN	15.7	14.2	14.3	13.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	52	53	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-11	15	16.7	16.0	0.70	15.1	13.3	1.83
Ervin Johnson	35	35	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.09	7	-14	21	16.0	16.6	-0.59	15.2	13.7	1.48
Sam Cassell	79	79	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-9	11	16.6	14.9	1.75	14.1	15.4	-1.31
Michael Redd	36	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	5	-17	15.8	16.7	-0.87	13.4	14.9	-1.43
Gary Payton	84	83	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	0	-7	15.7	22.0	-6.33	13.8	17.8	-3.99
Toni Kukoc	58	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	0	-7	15.7	17.4	-1.79	13.5	15.6	-2.08
Desmond Mason	73	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.39	-5	-2	-3	16.5	15.7	0.81	14.6	13.3	1.24
Anthony Mason	53	52	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.26	-17	10	-27	17.8	14.5	3.33	15.0	13.4	1.66

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	81	80	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	0	7	14.0	16.0	-1.98	16.4	16.2	0.15
Richard Jefferson	77	77	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-4	15	14.5	13.4	1.08	15.6	19.6	-4.04
Kerry Kittles	71	71	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	-1	9	13.6	16.3	-2.66	16.6	15.5	1.14
Aaron Williams	25	26	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	-1	9	16.8	13.4	3.35	19.2	15.2	3.94
Jason Collins	64	64	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.27	-2	9	-11	14.0	14.9	-0.88	15.8	17.5	-1.75
Lucious Harris	49	47	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	2	3	13.5	15.1	-1.60	16.1	16.6	-0.55
Rodney Rogers	28	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	1	5	14.9	14.0	0.85	15.4	16.7	-1.35
Kenyon Martin	53	54	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.32	-9	16	-25	14.7	13.8	0.83	17.3	15.1	2.16
Anthony Johnson	22	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	6	-5	14.8	14.1	0.68	15.7	16.5	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 111, POR 119	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.71,0.46,0.57,0.53,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.55,0.84,0.99,1	92.9%
DET 64, BOS 66	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.78,0.95,1	92.6%
CHA 89, SEA 96	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.73,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.6,0.7,0.76,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.77,0.99,1	92.6%