NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	111		Excitement	8.1 [212]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +25.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	119		Comeback	2.0 [191]		LVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): -21.5%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.06	0.00	9	74%	0.18	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Luke Walton	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.06	0.00	10	77%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Vujacic	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.02	0.11	-0.00	9	45%	0.14	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	10	54%	0.06	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.04
Jordan Farmar	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	8	41%	-0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.09	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.1,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09	0.03	-0.11	0.01	24	59%	0.14	6	-0.24	8	87%	0.03
Derek Fisher	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.21,-0.22	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	11	27%	-0.16	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.25	0.25	0.09	0.13	-0.03	18	58%	0.25	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.08	0.16	-0.00	4	100%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.07	0.04	10	75%	0.22	2	-0.07	8	87%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.01	15	60%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	7	56%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	-0.05	0.01	10	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.02	15	53%	0.09	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.04
Von Wafer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	1.8	31.2	15.6	26.3	2.6	40.2	143.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +54.6%

LAL -7.5%

LAL -27.8%

POR +28.4%

POR +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	POR	NBA	LAL	POR	NBA
this game	15.5	14.7	15.4	116.8	124.0	105.7
season	14.6	16.7		110.6	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.2		106.1	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.9	15.8	14.0	18.4	15.5
POR	15.4	13.6	15.4	14.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Farmar	34	36	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.04	0	-8	8	15.9	15.2	0.76	13.2	15.6	-2.42
Ronny Turiaf	22	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-6	4	17.0	15.0	2.07	15.3	14.5	0.73
Luke Walton	63	62	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-9	10	15.3	15.8	-0.54	15.6	13.1	2.46
Lamar Odom	83	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-4	0	15.4	15.5	-0.05	15.1	11.7	3.37
Kobe Bryant	87	88	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.26	-6	-2	-4	15.0	20.4	-5.37	14.7	15.1	-0.45
Pau Gasol	72	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	15.1	16.6	-1.47	14.7	14.8	-0.15
Derek Fisher	62	61	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.30	-8	0	-8	15.0	16.2	-1.21	15.4	13.4	2.01
Sasha Vujacic	52	53	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.15	-15	7	-22	16.4	14.3	2.19	13.1	16.7	-3.52

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	68	67	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.33	15	-7	22	13.4	17.9	-4.50	16.1	14.0	2.11
Jarrett Jack	57	57	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-7	22	12.5	18.0	-5.50	16.6	13.8	2.82
Brandon Roy	75	75	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	0	8	15.2	12.9	2.37	15.2	16.2	-1.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	69	69	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	2	4	15.6	12.4	3.15	15.3	15.7	-0.38
Joel Przybilla	55	54	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	8	-8	14.3	15.3	-0.98	15.0	16.0	-1.01
Steve Blake	58	59	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	5	-2	16.7	11.7	5.01	15.1	16.1	-1.06
Von Wafer	10	9	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	7	-6	11.4	15.1	-3.69	15.8	15.4	0.36
James Jones	35	35	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	8	-8	14.1	15.1	-0.98	16.2	15.0	1.14
Channing Frye	6	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	9	-10	14.8	14.7	0.13	16.1	15.4	0.75
Martell Webster	47	43	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	15	-22	16.4	13.1	3.28	13.9	16.8	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.71,0.46,0.57,0.53,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.55,0.84,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 82, NJN 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.85,0.98,1	92.9%
NYK 83, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.65,0.71,0.58,0.7,0.59,0.83,0.77,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	92.5%
MEM 103, LAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.46,0.66,0.62,0.73,0.68,0.59,0.67,0.78,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.91,1	92.2%