NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	8.1 [261]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +28.1%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	2.0 [754]		LVP	Rasho Nesterovic (SAS): -18.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	17	56%	0.12	3	-0.09	9	89%	0.04
Tony Massenburg	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.08	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	2	75%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	14	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	12	83%	0.09
Tony Parker	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	0.03	-0.10	0.00	16	61%	0.00	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	10	20%	-0.11	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.11	0.17	0.00	6	92%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	83%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.11,-0.24,-0.21,-0.17,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.04	0.00	26	50%	0.18	5	-0.21	4	100%	0.05
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	10	52%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	12	63%	0.03	3	-0.08	19	58%	-0.15
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	3.6	31.2	18.8	26.3	3.3	42.5	152.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +68.2%

SAS -11.0%

MIA +9.5%

SAS -19.0%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	14.3	15.5	96.8	101.1	104.0
season	16.3	15.7		105.8	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.6		101.1	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.8	16.8	15.3	16.2	16.0
MIA	14.8	14.5	16.0	12.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	21	19	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.11	2	-6	8	17.1	15.7	1.35	15.6	13.9	1.70
Robert Horry	22	21	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.06	7	-11	18	17.0	15.8	1.25	14.0	14.4	-0.41
Rasho Nesterovic	46	47	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.23	-4	0	-4	15.6	16.5	-0.88	15.3	13.3	2.03
Tony Massenburg	19	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	0	-4	16.9	15.8	1.13	13.2	14.5	-1.33
Brent Barry	24	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	2	-8	18.3	15.3	3.07	14.5	14.2	0.27
Manu Ginobili	72	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.48	3	-7	10	15.5	17.6	-2.07	14.3	14.1	0.17
Devin Brown	40	39	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-3	2	16.3	15.9	0.40	14.1	14.4	-0.29
Bruce Bowen	83	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-1	-2	15.7	18.2	-2.53	14.1	15.4	-1.29
Tim Duncan	74	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.34	-8	4	-12	15.8	17.0	-1.17	14.2	14.6	-0.48
Tony Parker	74	76	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.49	-6	2	-8	15.7	17.1	-1.35	13.9	15.6	-1.70

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	89	87	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.40	16	-12	28	14.2	15.7	-1.49	16.4	12.5	3.87
Damon Jones	69	70	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.45	6	-2	8	13.9	15.3	-1.37	15.1	18.7	-3.63
Shaquille O'Neal	73	73	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.30	8	-4	12	14.0	15.1	-1.06	15.5	17.8	-2.25
Shandon Anderson	39	40	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.43	-2	6	-8	13.5	14.8	-1.29	16.2	15.9	0.23
Eddie Jones	65	69	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.32	1	3	-2	14.1	14.6	-0.43	15.4	17.7	-2.27
Michael Doleac	31	28	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	4	-4	14.7	14.1	0.65	17.5	15.4	2.12
Rasual Butler	24	23	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	8	-12	15.5	13.9	1.64	16.9	15.8	1.15
Keyon Dooling	26	24	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	6	-8	15.3	13.9	1.37	18.7	15.1	3.62
Udonis Haslem	59	61	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.06	-3	7	-10	14.6	13.7	0.98	15.8	16.4	-0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.63,0.84,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 80, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.89,0.96,1	92.7%
ORL 97, SAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.71,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.65,0.61,0.39,0.63,0.67,0.91,1	92.6%
VAN 98, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	92.5%