NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	7.9 [267]		MVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): +25.4%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	1.8 [670]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -22.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.12	-0.00	6	75%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.14	0.02	10	67%	0.23	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.06	0.03	16	67%	0.20	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.03
Marcin Gortat	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
JJ Redick	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.01	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.17,-0.23	-0.04	-0.20	-0.01	14	54%	0.02	4	-0.25	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.13	0.01	8	83%	0.25	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.01	15	67%	0.28	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.12	0.07	17	62%	0.26	3	-0.12	6	100%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	-0.00	7	50%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.03	10	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	2	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tiago Splitter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	53%	0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	1.7	29.0	16.8	27.1	2.6	33.4	138.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +29.4%

SAS +1.4%

ORL -5.2%

SAS +22.7%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	15.5	103.2	114.0	105.7
season	15.2	15.5		106.3	109.3
opponent	15.2	16.2		103.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.5	15.5	13.2	15.1	14.8
SAS	15.1	16.5	15.6	17.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.03	2	-11	13	9.0	14.8	-5.85	0.0	16.2	-16.20
Chris Duhon	36	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-8	7	14.9	14.7	0.21	17.2	15.3	1.94
Quentin Richardson	53	52	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	-2	-5	14.9	14.7	0.23	14.6	17.8	-3.19
Brandon Bass	20	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-2	-5	17.3	14.1	3.19	18.9	15.2	3.67
Marcin Gortat	14	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-4	-1	16.1	14.5	1.59	16.6	15.9	0.65
Vince Carter	32	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-5	1	15.7	14.3	1.32	16.8	15.6	1.17
JJ Redick	49	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-7	5	14.4	15.2	-0.88	15.8	16.2	-0.39
Mickael Pietrus	50	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-4	-1	14.2	15.5	-1.25	17.2	14.7	2.50
Dwight Howard	80	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-5	1	14.5	16.1	-1.59	15.9	16.6	-0.65
Rashard Lewis	77	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-5	1	14.4	16.4	-1.98	15.5	18.5	-3.07
Jameer Nelson	58	58	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	-1	-7	14.7	14.9	-0.21	15.3	17.2	-1.94

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	69	70	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.25	14	-5	19	15.8	16.7	-0.87	15.2	13.7	1.45
Richard Jefferson	67	67	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	1	7	15.9	16.4	-0.50	14.8	14.8	-0.04
Matt Bonner	66	66	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-1	11	16.7	14.3	2.48	15.2	13.9	1.27
Tim Duncan	56	57	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	1	7	15.4	16.9	-1.45	14.3	15.6	-1.29
Manu Ginobili	71	69	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	3	3	16.1	15.9	0.15	14.4	16.0	-1.60
DeJuan Blair	22	21	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	9	-9	15.8	16.1	-0.33	14.9	14.8	0.09
Antonio McDyess	36	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	6	-3	17.4	15.2	2.19	15.7	14.2	1.56
George Hill	55	59	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	8	-7	15.8	16.4	-0.59	14.8	14.8	-0.02
Tiago Splitter	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	11	-13	0.0	16.2	-16.20	9.0	14.8	-5.85
Gary Neal	22	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	12	-15	15.7	16.1	-0.39	13.9	15.1	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.71,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.65,0.61,0.39,0.63,0.67,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 98, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	93.2%
SAS 92, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.63,0.84,0.91,1	92.6%
POR 117, LAC 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.69,0.92,1	92.2%