NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	86		Excitement	5.2 [766]		MVP	Jeff Green (OKC): +9.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Comeback	3.0 [575]		LVP	Caron Butler (DAL): -16.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	22	48%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Jose Juan Barea	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	10	55%	0.05	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.03	15	42%	-0.06	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	11	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.03	0.00	16	36%	-0.09	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	13	55%	0.12	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	0.00	0.04	7	94%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	11	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	45%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.01
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	28	39%	-0.06	1	0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Nenad Krstic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	40%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.2	2.4	26.9	16.0	30.2	2.5	33.6	142.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +48.0%

OKC +2.2%

DAL -16.7%

OKC +16.9%

DAL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	OKC	NBA	DAL	OKC	NBA
this game	15.5	13.8	15.3	87.8	100.0	106.0
season	15.2	15.0		107.2	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.3	16.2	16.1	15.4	15.5
OKC	12.9	13.8	12.7	15.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	14	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-10	7	13.6	15.8	-2.23	12.9	13.9	-0.99
Shawn Marion	67	67	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-19	25	16.2	13.9	2.26	14.3	12.6	1.69
DeShawn Stevenson	9	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-8	3	17.9	15.2	2.65	12.1	13.9	-1.79
Erick Dampier	59	60	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.28	6	-19	25	16.2	14.4	1.82	14.8	12.1	2.75
Jose Juan Barea	29	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.14	-9	-4	-5	14.3	16.0	-1.71	12.2	14.4	-2.17
Jason Terry	69	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-4	-5	14.8	17.0	-2.16	14.0	13.1	0.89
Jason Kidd	69	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-9	5	16.0	14.3	1.71	14.4	12.2	2.17
Caron Butler	66	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.01	-13	0	-13	14.8	16.9	-2.07	13.0	15.5	-2.50
Brendan Haywood	35	35	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.08	-16	3	-19	14.5	16.0	-1.46	11.6	14.9	-3.31
Dirk Nowitzki	73	72	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.13	-18	5	-23	16.0	14.0	1.93	14.2	12.5	1.77

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	65	64	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.05	17	-4	21	13.9	13.6	0.32	15.2	16.0	-0.80
Nick Collison	63	61	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	-2	17	13.6	14.0	-0.41	15.3	15.8	-0.45
Jeff Green	85	84	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.09	13	0	13	14.0	12.3	1.73	15.9	12.7	3.23
Kevin Durant	84	82	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.16	10	3	7	13.9	13.1	0.75	15.6	14.7	0.87
Russell Westbrook	70	69	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.12	6	7	-1	14.2	12.7	1.48	16.2	13.7	2.54
Eric Maynor	29	29	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.00	7	6	1	12.7	14.2	-1.48	13.7	16.2	-2.54
Serge Ibaka	29	30	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	10	-7	12.7	14.2	-1.48	13.8	16.2	-2.42
Nenad Krstic	34	35	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	15	-17	14.0	13.6	0.40	15.9	15.3	0.59
Thabo Sefolosha	36	36	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	17	-21	13.6	13.9	-0.29	15.9	15.2	0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 98, NOP 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1	95.1%
NJN 85, TOR 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.82,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
SAS 94, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.77,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1	94.5%