NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	7.2 [357]		MVP	Jermaine O'Neal (MIA): +11.6%
Chicago Bulls	95		Comeback	1.6 [654]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -17.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.12	0.06	0.04	-0.01	16	62%	0.22	3	-0.10	7	86%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	58%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rafer Alston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,-0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.04	6	92%	0.10	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.10	0.02	13	50%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.02	11	25%	-0.06	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	21	40%	-0.08	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	13	48%	0.11	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Derrick Rose	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.08	0.01	19	52%	0.19	3	-0.11	8	75%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	19	51%	0.07	0	0.00	11	82%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.01	9	52%	0.09	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Jannero Pargo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	29.8	15.8	30.0	3.0	43.0	148.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -6.3%

CHI +23.3%

CHI +5.0%

CHI +19.0%

CHI +9.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	14.8	14.2	15.3	91.0	96.9	106.0
season	16.2	14.7		104.4	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	15.4	13.5	15.0	14.8
CHI	14.5	12.6	16.0	13.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	60	61	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.18	13	-17	30	13.7	16.6	-2.87	13.9	14.7	-0.80
Dwyane Wade	80	78	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-12	20	14.6	15.8	-1.19	14.6	12.9	1.68
Jermaine O'Neal	72	71	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.29	7	-11	18	15.6	12.9	2.67	15.3	11.4	3.85
Joel Anthony	21	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	4	-12	12.9	15.4	-2.52	12.7	14.6	-1.86
Michael Beasley	48	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-3	2	15.3	14.5	0.81	12.4	16.0	-3.60
Quentin Richardson	74	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.45	4	-8	12	14.8	15.0	-0.15	14.3	14.0	0.36
Dorell Wright	41	37	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	9	-22	14.9	14.8	0.13	13.7	14.5	-0.81
Udonis Haslem	64	62	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.27	-13	9	-22	14.6	15.2	-0.58	14.7	13.5	1.21
Carlos Arroyo	40	37	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.20	-17	13	-30	16.6	13.7	2.87	14.7	13.9	0.80

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	67	68	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-9	22	14.4	13.8	0.63	14.8	15.0	-0.27
Devin Brown	26	26	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.12	10	-6	16	14.1	14.3	-0.21	14.0	15.1	-1.15
Brad Miller	74	73	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.32	2	2	0	14.3	14.2	0.09	15.7	12.6	3.14
Derrick Rose	87	87	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	6	-8	14.3	13.5	0.88	15.1	12.8	2.30
Luol Deng	82	84	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	6	-8	14.2	14.6	-0.47	14.2	18.2	-3.97
Kirk Hinrich	65	67	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.20	0	4	-4	13.3	16.2	-2.89	14.9	14.7	0.23
Chris Richard	42	42	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	0	4	14.6	14.0	0.63	14.2	15.3	-1.10
Jannero Pargo	1	1	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	2	0	27.0	14.1	12.90	4.0	15.0	-10.96
Taj Gibson	46	52	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	11	-18	14.7	13.8	0.91	15.3	14.3	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, MIL 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.99,0.98,1	93.6%
WAS 91, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.81,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.5%
LAL 96, DET 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1	92.9%