NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	6.5 [484]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +22.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder	106		Comeback	1.8 [635]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -14.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.20	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.18	0.02	0.01	20	77%	0.38	5	-0.19	8	100%	0.06
Mike Bibby	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	8	57%	0.12	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Josh Smith	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	9	68%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	10	54%	0.06	1	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Mario West	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	8	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.08	0.02	18	66%	0.27	2	-0.04	14	100%	0.07
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	15	58%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	5	80%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	16	35%	-0.09	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.7	33.5	18.4	21.5	2.7	29.2	134.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -1.1%

OKC +4.4%

OKC +27.1%

OKC +16.9%

OKC +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	OKC	NBA	ATL	OKC	NBA
this game	16.0	17.9	15.3	116.5	124.7	106.0
season	16.0	15.0		109.4	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.1	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.4	16.6	18.6	14.8	16.0
OKC	16.3	16.1	20.3	19.5	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	27	27	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-9	11	15.3	16.3	-0.96	18.9	17.5	1.46
Mario West	7	6	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-7	7	16.1	15.9	0.21	14.3	18.2	-3.87
Maurice Evans	14	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-7	7	15.4	16.1	-0.63	15.8	18.3	-2.55
Joe Smith	14	14	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-6	5	15.9	16.0	-0.03	17.4	18.0	-0.60
Jeff Teague	9	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-4	1	15.0	16.1	-1.07	16.3	18.1	-1.85
Jamal Crawford	46	48	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-10	13	15.5	16.5	-0.94	19.4	16.0	3.46
Mike Bibby	59	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.28	-2	-5	3	15.7	16.5	-0.79	17.3	19.4	-2.11
Al Horford	67	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-5	3	15.8	16.6	-0.76	17.8	18.3	-0.46
Marvin Williams	47	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	6	-19	16.9	14.8	2.01	18.2	17.6	0.59
Joe Johnson	73	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.32	-6	-1	-5	16.0	15.4	0.62	18.2	16.4	1.82
Josh Smith	62	61	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.29	-13	6	-19	16.4	14.7	1.72	17.7	18.5	-0.80

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nenad Krstic	53	53	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.31	15	-8	23	17.6	18.5	-0.86	16.1	15.7	0.33
Jeff Green	70	72	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.44	10	-3	13	17.8	18.5	-0.73	16.4	13.6	2.76
Thabo Sefolosha	49	49	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.38	7	0	7	18.6	17.0	1.56	15.9	16.0	-0.13
Russell Westbrook	63	63	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	0	7	18.1	17.4	0.70	16.3	15.0	1.22
Kevin Durant	72	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	-1	9	17.4	20.6	-3.17	15.6	17.5	-1.85
Eric Maynor	21	21	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	5	-3	17.2	18.2	-0.92	15.3	16.2	-0.82
James Harden	37	37	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.07	-2	9	-11	17.1	18.5	-1.41	15.8	16.0	-0.20
Serge Ibaka	28	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.07	-4	11	-15	19.5	17.2	2.34	15.6	16.1	-0.47
Nick Collison	32	32	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	15	-23	18.5	17.6	0.86	15.7	16.1	-0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.87,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.65,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 106, GSW 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.98,1	94.2%
HOU 94, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.83,0.96,0.96,1	93.5%
MIN 102, HOU 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.67,0.72,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.72,0.98,1,1	93.1%