NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	84		Excitement	4.1 [986]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +12.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Comeback	1.4 [726]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -9.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	-0.00	-0.05	15	56%	0.09	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Johan Petro	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nene	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	0.01	0.06	8	65%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	8	76%	0.11	6	-0.15	9	100%	0.03
Ty Lawson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	7	36%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	10	54%	0.00	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	0.02	0.04	19	68%	0.15	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	11	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	5	77%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Byron Mullens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	8	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	11	46%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Nenad Krstic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	2.7	28.1	14.8	27.2	2.5	32.5	139.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +13.8%

DEN -4.8%

OKC +15.3%

OKC +23.9%

OKC +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.5	15.9	15.3	90.3	111.0	106.0
season	14.4	15.0		110.3	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.1	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	17.4	15.5	15.5	15.5
OKC	13.3	16.9	15.1	18.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joey Graham	41	39	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.19	8	-25	33	15.5	15.4	0.06	16.1	15.7	0.38
Johan Petro	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-22	27	11.7	15.7	-4.05	20.8	15.5	5.33
Malik Allen	21	21	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-19	21	15.5	15.4	0.09	18.8	15.0	3.78
Chris Andersen	30	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-11	5	16.2	15.1	1.15	16.3	15.7	0.61
Nene	64	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	-5	-7	16.0	14.1	1.91	15.5	16.5	-0.97
Ty Lawson	46	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.01	-11	-6	-5	15.7	15.2	0.48	17.2	14.5	2.66
Chauncey Billups	67	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.06	-13	-4	-9	15.6	15.2	0.41	15.3	17.3	-1.99
J.R. Smith	54	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	-5	-7	15.8	15.0	0.78	16.5	15.0	1.49
Arron Afflalo	71	70	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.18	-23	6	-29	14.9	17.2	-2.27	14.9	18.9	-3.96
Kenyon Martin	65	63	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.11	-23	6	-29	14.8	16.9	-2.06	14.5	18.9	-4.33

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	62	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.22	25	-8	33	14.7	18.4	-3.70	15.6	15.1	0.51
Kevin Durant	75	76	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.22	23	-6	29	14.7	21.3	-6.62	15.3	16.2	-0.96
Nenad Krstic	46	47	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	6	5	14.9	16.8	-1.95	15.1	15.8	-0.74
Thabo Sefolosha	46	49	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.15	17	0	17	15.0	16.7	-1.73	15.7	15.2	0.43
Jeff Green	67	69	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	9	-1	16.1	15.1	0.99	16.1	13.5	2.57
James Harden	37	37	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	11	-5	16.4	15.5	0.92	15.0	15.7	-0.75
Nick Collison	43	43	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.21	14	3	11	16.3	15.5	0.84	16.5	14.5	1.97
Serge Ibaka	38	39	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.13	-1	18	-19	17.3	14.8	2.46	15.2	15.6	-0.38
Kevin Ollie	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	22	-27	20.8	15.5	5.33	11.7	15.7	-4.05
Byron Mullens	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	22	-27	20.8	15.5	5.33	11.7	15.7	-4.05
Eric Maynor	29	29	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.22	-8	25	-33	18.4	14.7	3.70	15.1	15.6	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 83, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
CHH 79, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.3%
CHH 90, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%