NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	96		Excitement	5.6 [686]		MVP	Brad Miller (CHI): +15.0%
Oklahoma City Thunder	86		Comeback	1.4 [416]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -14.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.02	9	64%	0.19	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Derrick Rose	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.05	0.02	23	57%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	10	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	8	76%	0.17	5	-0.13	1	100%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
James Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	16	53%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.05	13	19%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	19	56%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	6	43%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	11	43%	-0.02	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.01	-0.06	0.09	19	53%	-0.02	4	-0.12	15	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	26.0	15.8	23.6	2.6	33.3	131.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +56.6%

OKC -0.2%

OKC -0.6%

OKC -6.4%

CHI +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	OKC	NBA	CHI	OKC	NBA
this game	15.8	15.0	15.3	102.1	92.5	106.0
season	14.7	15.0		101.9	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.7		103.1	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.3	14.6	15.3	18.3	15.8
OKC	13.5	16.7	16.0	13.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	41	40	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.11	23	-13	36	15.5	16.1	-0.67	16.0	14.1	1.92
Taj Gibson	66	67	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.13	16	-6	22	16.4	14.6	1.81	15.2	14.2	1.01
John Salmons	43	43	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.11	9	1	8	14.2	17.3	-3.09	15.7	14.3	1.33
Derrick Rose	71	71	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	1	8	16.5	13.8	2.67	15.1	14.6	0.48
Kirk Hinrich	74	72	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.24	2	8	-6	16.2	14.5	1.64	14.4	16.8	-2.39
Tyrus Thomas	39	37	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	8	-6	14.4	16.9	-2.53	15.3	14.7	0.57
Luol Deng	71	71	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	6	-2	16.6	13.5	3.13	14.6	16.1	-1.54
James Johnson	12	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	12	-14	13.2	16.2	-3.07	14.5	15.0	-0.57
Joakim Noah	53	53	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.10	-13	23	-36	16.1	15.5	0.67	14.1	16.0	-1.92

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nenad Krstic	34	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	-7	4	16.2	14.2	2.01	15.2	16.2	-0.97
Thabo Sefolosha	64	66	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-11	12	14.6	15.7	-1.11	16.7	13.7	2.98
Kevin Durant	76	77	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-9	8	14.6	16.6	-2.00	16.5	12.7	3.83
James Harden	35	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-11	12	13.4	15.9	-2.50	17.4	14.9	2.46
Eric Maynor	35	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-6	2	15.7	14.5	1.21	14.0	16.9	-2.93
Russell Westbrook	58	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	14.5	15.7	-1.21	16.9	14.0	2.93
Nick Collison	44	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.15	-5	-5	0	14.9	15.0	-0.09	14.3	17.1	-2.83
Serge Ibaka	35	34	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.05	-16	6	-22	16.1	14.2	1.90	13.7	17.0	-3.30
Jeff Green	84	85	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.13	-17	7	-24	15.2	12.6	2.66	15.8	16.7	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%
ORL 98, DEN 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.45,0.4,0.52,0.47,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0	92.7%
IND 85, PHI 76	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%