NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	98		Excitement	4.8 [827]		MVP	Gerald Wilkins (ORL): +15.7%
Denver Nuggets	84		Comeback	1.2 [884]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (DEN): -12.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wilkins	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.08	0.01	7	79%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	8	83%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Derek Harper	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	71%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Rony Seikaly	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	86%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	15	62%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Vernon Maxwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	59%	0.01	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.02
Brian Evans	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.14	-0.02	-0.07	8	22%	-0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.03	10	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	10	67%	0.10	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kiwane Garris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Harold Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	14	39%	-0.05	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	26.8	15.6	23.2	2.7	29.3	122.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +40.6%

ORL +8.8%

ORL +1.1%

DEN -3.1%

ORL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	17.2	15.6	115.3	100.0	102.5
season	16.7	16.2		100.3	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		109.5	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.6	13.3	18.5	19.8	16.8
DEN	16.1	19.1	19.4	14.7	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wilkins	24	27	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	1	12	19.6	15.8	3.83	15.3	18.2	-2.82
Dan Schayes	35	39	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	1	12	16.9	16.8	0.13	17.4	17.1	0.30
Horace Grant	78	77	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	3	8	17.2	12.7	4.49	16.9	20.6	-3.62
Bo Outlaw	70	70	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	1	12	16.5	18.6	-2.14	17.0	18.4	-1.41
Darrell Armstrong	45	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	4	6	18.3	15.2	3.04	16.1	18.6	-2.50
Mark Price	41	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	10	-6	14.9	18.7	-3.83	18.7	15.9	2.82
Rony Seikaly	53	49	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.00	6	8	-2	16.6	17.2	-0.51	18.0	16.3	1.70
Brian Evans	15	14	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	13	-12	18.6	16.5	2.14	18.4	17.0	1.41
Derek Harper	44	41	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	12	-10	17.2	16.5	0.67	17.1	17.3	-0.20
Vernon Maxwell	20	18	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	17	-20	12.6	18.1	-5.54	19.0	16.8	2.23

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kiwane Garris	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	8.7	17.6	-8.90	21.0	16.7	4.27
Anthony Goldwire	57	56	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-11	8	17.2	17.3	-0.12	18.1	14.4	3.62
Danny Fortson	7	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-9	4	17.0	17.3	-0.27	15.6	17.0	-1.34
Tony Battie	53	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	-7	0	18.0	15.9	2.13	16.8	16.9	-0.11
Harold Ellis	24	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	-5	-4	15.5	17.9	-2.39	14.3	17.8	-3.53
LaPhonso Ellis	60	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-9	4	17.9	15.5	2.39	17.8	14.3	3.53
Joe Wolf	28	26	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-11	8	17.2	17.2	-0.00	15.7	17.3	-1.59
Dean Garrett	69	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	-2	-10	18.0	14.0	3.96	17.2	15.0	2.23
Bobby Jackson	65	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.07	-11	-3	-8	16.6	19.4	-2.81	16.9	16.8	0.09
Eric Washington	54	56	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	1	-16	16.9	17.9	-1.01	15.7	19.1	-3.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.45,0.4,0.52,0.47,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 114, PHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
CLE 96, BOS 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.04,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	94.1%
UTA 92, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0	94.0%