NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	96		Excitement	7.2 [359]		MVP	Luke Ridnour (MIL): +29.3%
Toronto Raptors	101		Comeback	6.4 [346]		LVP	Carlos Delfino (MIL): -26.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.29	0.24	0.12	0.07	13	84%	0.29	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Andrew Bogut	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	-0.01	0.02	13	67%	0.11	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	45%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.02	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	15	41%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Charlie Bell	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	7	21%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	0.00	5	67%	0.05	5	-0.23	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	-0.27	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27	-0.15	-0.12	0.00	16	26%	-0.20	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.25	0.17	0.12	0.03	9	90%	0.37	4	-0.11	12	92%	0.05
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	9	59%	0.13	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.01	6	56%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	13	53%	0.06	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Patrick O'Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.07
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	47%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	10	26%	-0.06	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.09	0.00	8	22%	-0.14	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.7	37.2	17.6	25.8	1.8	45.3	155.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +16.7%

TOR +10.0%

TOR +17.2%

TOR +5.1%

TOR +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.4	15.1	15.3	102.1	106.3	106.0
season	15.5	15.0		103.3	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		111.5	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.1	16.2	15.6	14.7	15.4
TOR	14.9	18.0	14.4	13.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	44	44	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.01	10	-15	25	15.2	15.6	-0.44	14.8	15.3	-0.54
Kurt Thomas	21	21	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.06	1	-6	7	15.2	15.4	-0.20	16.0	14.8	1.18
Jerry Stackhouse	40	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.08	-1	-4	3	15.1	15.6	-0.51	16.6	13.9	2.73
Luc Mbah a Moute	43	44	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.10	-9	4	-13	15.0	15.7	-0.73	15.5	14.7	0.82
Charlie Bell	56	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-5	5	15.7	14.9	0.79	14.3	16.2	-1.81
Brandon Jennings	62	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.33	-5	0	-5	16.1	14.0	2.16	14.8	15.6	-0.77
Carlos Delfino	86	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	-2	-1	15.2	17.1	-1.89	14.8	18.0	-3.22
Andrew Bogut	71	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	-1	-3	15.7	14.5	1.15	15.4	14.1	1.34
Luke Ridnour	47	49	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.34	-14	9	-23	14.8	16.0	-1.17	14.5	15.7	-1.23

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	64	63	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.41	15	-10	25	14.5	16.2	-1.65	15.3	15.6	-0.38
Jose Calderon	50	49	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.38	11	-6	17	14.6	15.7	-1.11	14.9	15.9	-0.99
Chris Bosh	78	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-6	17	14.6	17.3	-2.69	15.5	14.8	0.69
Jarrett Jack	69	67	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.34	9	-4	13	14.4	16.9	-2.48	15.6	15.0	0.55
Marco Belinelli	51	49	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.45	4	1	3	15.2	15.0	0.24	14.6	16.3	-1.76
Sonny Weems	8	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	6	-7	16.4	15.0	1.41	17.0	15.3	1.74
Antoine Wright	37	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.08	-1	6	-7	17.2	13.7	3.45	15.8	15.2	0.60
Patrick O'Bryant	7	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	10	-15	14.3	15.1	-0.86	13.9	15.6	-1.66
Rasho Nesterovic	38	39	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	8	-11	15.6	14.7	0.87	16.6	14.5	2.04
DeMar DeRozan	40	42	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.02	-5	10	-15	14.8	15.3	-0.40	16.2	14.8	1.40
Amir Johnson	33	32	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.06	-10	15	-25	16.5	14.3	2.15	14.2	16.0	-1.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.49,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.17,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.38,0.54,0.78,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 104, DEN 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.28,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.27,0.39,0.63,0.67,0.92,1	91.6%
TOR 91, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.27,0.39,0.54,0.68,0.95,1	91.3%
NJN 104, WAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.15,0.25,0.17,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.34,0.68,0.55,0.77,0.92,1	91.1%