NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	91		Excitement	7.5 [299]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (DET): +18.8%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	6.7 [291]		LVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): -15.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.03	0.00	5	100%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.00	7	57%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06	0.13	-0.06	0.01	14	69%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Lonny Baxter	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.01	0.02	15	52%	0.04	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Robert Archibald	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	20	48%	0.00	3	-0.10	16	81%	0.12
Alvin Williams	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	11	18%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.13	0.01	13	67%	0.21	1	-0.03	14	93%	0.08
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.04
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.17,-0.21,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	19	54%	0.02	3	-0.06	12	75%	-0.02
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	14	42%	-0.06	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	7	31%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.8	31.1	16.5	28.9	1.8	33.5	138.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +1.6%

DET +12.1%

DET +40.8%

TOR -3.2%

TOR -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	17.6	15.3	15.7	104.6	108.0	100.5
season	16.8	16.2		94.8	99.2
opponent	16.0	15.7		92.6	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.8	18.2	17.7	16.7	17.6
DET	14.9	17.0	14.4	15.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	38	39	0.28	-0.78	1.07	-0.04	11	-15	26	18.9	16.6	2.37	15.2	15.5	-0.29
Lonny Baxter	27	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-4	4	17.5	17.6	-0.10	17.0	14.6	2.34
Robert Archibald	20	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	3	-10	17.8	17.5	0.28	15.5	15.3	0.17
Michael Curry	55	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.39	3	-7	10	17.3	18.0	-0.65	14.7	16.5	-1.82
Vince Carter	76	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.31	-6	2	-8	17.4	19.1	-1.72	15.5	14.5	0.97
Donyell Marshall	72	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.41	-4	0	-4	17.7	16.9	0.87	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Alvin Williams	70	70	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	7	-18	17.7	16.9	0.80	14.8	17.3	-2.43
Jalen Rose	77	79	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.49	-6	2	-8	17.0	22.1	-5.10	15.7	11.9	3.85

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	65	65	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.32	18	-14	32	14.5	17.7	-3.19	17.5	17.8	-0.31
Mehmet Okur	57	56	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.38	11	-7	18	16.5	13.2	3.32	17.7	17.5	0.21
Tayshaun Prince	68	67	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.38	6	-2	8	15.8	13.7	2.12	16.8	20.2	-3.46
Chauncey Billups	81	80	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	2	0	15.8	9.9	5.96	17.1	22.9	-5.73
Corliss Williamson	49	47	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	2	0	14.6	16.3	-1.69	17.9	17.3	0.58
Elden Campbell	10	9	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	-5	14	12.8	15.7	-2.87	17.3	17.6	-0.28
Chucky Atkins	32	31	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.06	-4	8	-12	15.1	15.5	-0.44	19.9	16.3	3.65
Ben Wallace	36	36	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.06	-9	13	-22	16.1	14.8	1.35	18.3	17.1	1.18
Darvin Ham	21	23	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.00	-7	11	-18	14.6	15.6	-0.95	15.0	18.5	-3.52
Bob Sura	21	21	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.00	-8	12	-20	14.1	15.7	-1.64	19.6	16.9	2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.27,0.39,0.54,0.68,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 83, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.27,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.55,0.76,0.96,1	92.6%
WAS 97, UTA 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.26,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.54,0.69,0.72,1	92.3%
CLE 78, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.77,0.91,1	92.2%