NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	8.4 [202]		MVP	Samuel Dalembert (MIL): +40.8%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	8.3 [271]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -39.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samuel Dalembert	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.29	0.12	-0.00	21	81%	0.41	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	4	87%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	7	13%	-0.08	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Monta Ellis	-0.33	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.18,-0.17,-0.32,-0.33	-0.16	-0.20	-0.03	21	29%	-0.16	2	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.40	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.34,-0.4	-0.22	-0.20	-0.03	15	34%	-0.14	7	-0.26	5	40%	-0.10

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.21,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.10	0.22	0.01	11	67%	0.36	2	-0.05	11	82%	0.05
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	13	57%	0.15	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	0.07	-0.12	0.01	14	63%	0.10	3	-0.16	7	71%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	-0.00	9	40%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	11	29%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	27.6	15.8	27.4	1.7	37.6	135.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -3.2%

DEN +32.2%

DEN +4.4%

DEN +20.1%

MIL -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	12.7	15.4	99.0	104.7	104.1
season	14.7	14.4		101.6	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		104.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	13.2	15.4	15.0	14.4
DEN	12.2	16.1	11.4	11.6	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Henson	26	25	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.00	4	-12	16	14.5	14.4	0.08	14.4	12.2	2.21
Beno Udrih	31	31	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.13	-1	-7	6	14.5	14.4	0.02	12.4	12.9	-0.46
Larry Sanders	51	53	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-6	4	14.1	14.7	-0.58	12.4	13.1	-0.66
Ersan Ilyasova	52	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	0	-8	14.9	14.0	0.92	12.1	13.5	-1.40
Luc Mbah a Moute	81	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.14	-7	-1	-6	14.6	14.0	0.57	12.8	12.7	0.05
Samuel Dalembert	59	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-5	2	14.5	14.3	0.20	13.0	12.4	0.56
Brandon Jennings	86	89	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.30	-7	-1	-6	14.2	15.4	-1.14	13.1	11.0	2.10
Monta Ellis	93	93	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.36	-8	0	-8	14.6	13.0	1.62	12.5	14.4	-1.93
Mike Dunleavy	46	48	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.37	-8	0	-8	13.9	14.9	-1.01	12.7	12.8	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	75	72	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.42	10	-2	12	11.8	15.0	-3.26	14.0	15.5	-1.48
Corey Brewer	59	58	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-6	20	12.6	13.0	-0.42	14.8	14.0	0.83
Danilo Gallinari	81	81	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.25	14	-6	20	12.4	13.8	-1.40	14.5	14.2	0.35
Kenneth Faried	67	66	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.39	8	0	8	12.8	12.6	0.24	14.8	13.8	0.98
Ty Lawson	81	79	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.35	8	0	8	12.8	12.5	0.28	14.8	13.4	1.40
Kosta Koufos	40	38	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	11.9	13.2	-1.31	14.1	14.6	-0.56
Wilson Chandler	45	44	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.15	-1	9	-10	13.9	11.9	1.93	14.7	14.2	0.46
Andre Miller	48	48	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.13	-2	10	-12	13.6	12.0	1.63	14.5	14.4	0.08
JaVale McGee	39	39	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.07	-11	19	-30	13.8	12.2	1.61	13.3	15.1	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.28,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.27,0.39,0.63,0.67,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 113, VAN 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.11,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.27,0.38,0.63,0.9,0.92,1	91.6%
CLE 87, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.12,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.85,1	91.6%
MIL 96, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.49,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.17,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.38,0.54,0.78,0.96,1	91.6%