NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	4.5 [907]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +13.4%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.8 [789]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -15.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	2	50%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	9	52%	0.05	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
Matt Barnes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.16	-0.01	0.13	18	68%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	10	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	7	50%	0.03	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	7	57%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	32%	-0.05	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	-0.16	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	7	36%	-0.03	5	-0.13	8	75%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	8	81%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.03	0.04	15	69%	0.16	4	-0.06	9	100%	0.04
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	11	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.02	0.06	9	77%	0.10	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	10	46%	0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.04	14	69%	0.11	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	83%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.5	30.4	16.4	31.3	2.5	27.5	136.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.2%

DEN +8.9%

DEN +2.2%

DEN +12.3%

ORL -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	15.3	103.2	123.7	106.0
season	15.4	14.4		110.1	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.9		106.4	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	15.5	17.2	16.3	16.2
DEN	14.9	13.9	15.5	14.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	30	31	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-22	26	16.3	16.1	0.22	14.6	14.6	-0.05
Anthony Johnson	12	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-28	38	14.6	16.4	-1.83	16.7	14.3	2.45
Brandon Bass	21	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-16	14	16.7	16.0	0.63	14.5	14.6	-0.14
Ryan Anderson	37	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-15	12	14.8	17.1	-2.30	15.5	14.1	1.35
Jason Williams	38	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.38	-21	3	-24	16.5	16.0	0.49	13.2	15.6	-2.42
JJ Redick	66	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.30	-19	1	-20	16.5	15.4	1.07	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Jameer Nelson	44	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	-11	4	16.4	16.0	0.34	15.0	14.3	0.73
Mickael Pietrus	43	42	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.07	-13	-5	-8	16.4	16.0	0.44	14.8	14.4	0.40
Matt Barnes	74	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-16	14	15.9	17.3	-1.42	14.3	15.8	-1.58
Rashard Lewis	44	44	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	-1	-16	17.0	15.5	1.45	14.8	14.5	0.30
Dwight Howard	61	60	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.03	-20	2	-22	16.1	16.4	-0.28	14.7	14.4	0.34

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	57	58	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.02	17	1	16	14.8	14.2	0.59	16.2	16.2	0.02
Arron Afflalo	56	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	5	8	14.1	15.5	-1.41	16.7	15.4	1.32
Nene	53	54	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.07	18	0	18	14.3	15.0	-0.77	17.9	13.8	4.14
Carmelo Anthony	69	70	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.32	26	-8	34	14.3	15.6	-1.36	16.6	15.0	1.53
Kenyon Martin	72	71	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.17	20	-2	22	14.6	14.6	0.05	15.9	17.0	-1.03
Chris Andersen	34	37	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.29	16	2	14	14.1	14.9	-0.73	16.2	16.2	0.06
J.R. Smith	47	48	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.10	6	12	-6	15.0	14.3	0.70	15.3	17.1	-1.73
Anthony Carter	39	39	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	16	-14	14.3	14.8	-0.48	16.2	16.1	0.09
Malik Allen	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	26	-34	16.7	14.3	2.45	14.6	16.4	-1.83
Joey Graham	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	28	-38	16.7	14.3	2.45	14.6	16.4	-1.83
Johan Petro	14	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.22	-10	28	-38	15.9	14.4	1.55	11.9	16.9	-5.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.6,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 88, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
ATL 83, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
DEN 89, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%