NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	83		Excitement	4.7 [888]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +22.4%
Toronto Raptors	104		Comeback	1.9 [879]		LVP	Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): -11.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gustavo Ayon	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	11	82%	0.14	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	68%	0.10	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	9	33%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	13	42%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Cartier Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	9	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Elton Brand	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	38%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Dennis Schroder	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	5	8%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shelvin Mack	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	8	28%	-0.06	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.20	0.06	0.03	19	69%	0.25	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	10	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	7	38%	0.04	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.04
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.01	0.05	11	59%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.04	14	47%	0.07	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Julyan Stone	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Buycks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0.03	15	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.06	5	60%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	9	11%	-0.12	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	27.3	14.8	29.8	1.6	26.2	126.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +14.9%

ATL -2.7%

TOR +17.7%

TOR +17.3%

TOR +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	16.9	15.1	89.2	110.6	105.2
season	14.8	15.9		103.8	107.2
opponent	15.1	15.3		104.2	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	11.9	15.3	13.3	15.3	13.9
TOR	16.2	16.7	18.9	16.0	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelvin Mack	30	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-17	13	14.5	13.6	0.91	14.4	18.1	-3.68
Dennis Schroder	40	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.19	-12	-9	-3	14.2	13.6	0.65	16.9	16.9	-0.01
Elton Brand	30	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-14	7	13.9	13.9	0.08	15.2	17.7	-2.45
Mike Scott	37	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.20	-15	-6	-9	14.7	13.4	1.32	17.6	16.5	1.15
Gustavo Ayon	57	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	-12	3	14.2	13.4	0.71	17.5	15.9	1.62
Kyle Korver	53	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-16	11	12.8	15.3	-2.44	17.3	16.4	0.85
Jeff Teague	54	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.12	-14	-7	-7	14.2	13.5	0.72	18.2	14.9	3.28
Paul Millsap	62	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-10	-1	13.1	15.4	-2.26	16.7	17.3	-0.53
Louis Williams	56	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-10	-1	13.7	14.2	-0.47	17.8	15.5	2.23
Cartier Martin	46	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	-4	-13	14.2	13.5	0.71	15.4	18.4	-2.91

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	63	65	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.14	18	3	15	18.2	14.2	4.04	14.2	13.2	0.95
Kyle Lowry	64	64	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	7	7	17.0	16.7	0.30	13.3	15.2	-1.98
Patrick Patterson	60	58	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	7	7	16.8	17.0	-0.15	14.0	13.7	0.27
John Salmons	42	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.35	22	-1	23	16.2	17.5	-1.33	14.0	13.8	0.27
Tyler Hansbrough	38	38	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	9	3	15.0	18.2	-3.24	13.1	14.4	-1.31
Greivis Vasquez	48	46	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.25	17	4	13	16.1	17.7	-1.59	14.1	13.7	0.41
Jonas Valanciunas	45	45	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	16	-11	18.7	15.2	3.51	13.5	14.3	-0.80
Terrence Ross	52	49	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	22	-23	17.5	16.2	1.33	13.8	14.0	-0.27
Steve Novak	34	36	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.24	14	7	7	18.3	16.1	2.22	14.4	13.5	0.87
Julyan Stone	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	25	-29	13.3	17.2	-3.91	15.5	13.8	1.73
Dwight Buycks	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	24	-27	12.3	17.2	-4.88	14.2	13.9	0.34
Austin Daye	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	24	-27	12.3	17.2	-4.88	14.2	13.9	0.34
Charles Hayes	5	4	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	21	-21	11.6	17.2	-5.60	19.2	13.6	5.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 102, DET 115	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.37,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
LAC 94, PHX 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.6%
CLE 92, CHI 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%