NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	5.5 [704]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +16.0%
Chicago Bulls	101		Comeback	2.1 [345]		LVP	Vince Carter (ORL): -15.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Barnes	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.15	0.02	0.04	14	72%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.08	0.01	0.05	8	69%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	11	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	13	38%	-0.06	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	41%	-0.03	2	-0.05	8	37%	-0.07
Rashard Lewis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	9	35%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Vince Carter	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	15	25%	-0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.07	-0.04	23	54%	0.21	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.02
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	9	68%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.03	9	58%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	14	44%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	11	42%	-0.02	1	0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	7	43%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	28.6	16.7	32.1	2.3	34.7	139.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +27.4%

CHI +17.7%

CHI +4.5%

CHI +0.4%

CHI +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.8	14.3	15.3	96.9	106.3	106.0
season	15.4	14.7		110.1	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.9		103.9	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.2	17.5	15.2	14.5	15.8
CHI	13.2	13.2	13.6	17.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	31	31	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.24	12	-20	32	13.7	16.8	-3.09	16.2	13.4	2.79
Jason Williams	35	32	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-13	18	14.9	16.3	-1.40	12.5	15.3	-2.79
Ryan Anderson	38	38	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.26	10	-18	28	15.0	16.4	-1.42	15.9	13.3	2.59
Marcin Gortat	30	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	0	-8	15.4	16.0	-0.58	13.8	14.6	-0.80
Dwight Howard	66	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-8	8	16.0	15.4	0.58	14.6	13.8	0.80
Matt Barnes	62	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-10	12	15.1	17.2	-2.17	14.9	13.2	1.73
Mickael Pietrus	41	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	5	-18	16.3	15.5	0.76	13.1	15.2	-2.14
Vince Carter	58	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	9	-26	17.5	13.3	4.12	13.5	15.6	-2.05
Rashard Lewis	58	57	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.00	-18	10	-28	16.4	15.0	1.42	13.3	15.9	-2.59
Jameer Nelson	61	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	5	-18	16.3	14.9	1.40	15.3	12.5	2.79

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	76	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	-6	20	14.8	12.3	2.57	16.1	15.0	1.13
Derrick Rose	74	77	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-1	10	13.8	16.0	-2.22	15.6	16.8	-1.19
Taj Gibson	62	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	4	0	15.7	11.7	3.97	16.4	14.9	1.53
John Salmons	55	57	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.03	14	-6	20	13.5	15.4	-1.87	15.6	16.1	-0.50
Brad Miller	60	59	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.23	3	5	-2	14.6	13.9	0.73	15.6	16.3	-0.71
Joakim Noah	34	36	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	5	-2	13.9	14.5	-0.58	16.7	15.3	1.38
Kirk Hinrich	62	61	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.26	-4	12	-16	15.4	12.2	3.18	16.2	15.2	1.04
Tyrus Thomas	32	35	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.05	1	7	-6	12.0	15.5	-3.49	15.1	16.2	-1.09
James Johnson	20	21	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	12	-16	12.2	14.9	-2.68	14.0	16.3	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.89,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 78, PHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
IND 103, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.81,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
DAL 100, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.76,0.9,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.5%